基于IS-LM-BP模型的日本负利率政策有效性研究

Research on the Effectiveness of Japan's Negative Interest Rate Policy Based on IS-LM-BP Model

在全球金融危机和新冠疫情的双重冲击之下,负利率政策实践在诸多国家呈现固化发展态势。日本作为亚洲首个实施负利率政策的国家,其政策有效性备受争议。基于IS-LM-BP模型从理论上证实负利率政策借助利率机制和货币-价格机制的调节作用能够大幅度提高社会经济总产出,并推导出负利率政策通过汇率渠道拉升通胀、通过贸易和投资渠道刺激经济增长的预期政策效果。但是,运用TVP-VAR模型针对日本2012—2021年经济数据的实证检验却发现,负利率政策只能够在短期内起到抑制日元升值、改善贸易余额和降低对外净投资额的作用,政策效果难以在中长期得到持续发挥,日本未能实现刺激经济增长和2%的通胀目标。为此,在全球经济一体化日益明显的背景下,我国央行应以史为鉴,高度关注发达国家的负利率政策实践,总结与吸取日本负利率政策的经验教训以保证提升我国货币政策的有效性。第一,维持货币政策正常操作空间,增强政策调控效果;第二,高度关注当前全球负利率政策环境对我国的负面溢出效应;第三,更加注重货币政策与其他经济政策的统筹协调。

Under the dual impact of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 epidemic,the practice of negative interest rate policy has shown a solid development trend in many countries.This article is based on the IS-LM-BP model to theoretically prove that negative interest rate policy can significantly increase the overall output of the social economy through the regulatory effects of interest rate mechanisms and currency price mechanisms.It also deduces the expected policy effects of negative interest rate policy in driving up inflation through exchange rate channels and stimulating economic growth through trade and investment channels.However,empirical testing using the TVP-VAR model on Japan's economic data from January 2012 to January 2021 found that negative interest rate policies can only suppress the appreciation of the yen,improve trade balance,and reduce net foreign investment in the short term.The policy effect is difficult to sustain in the medium to long term,and Japan has failed to achieve the policy goal of stimulating economic growth and inflation rate of 2%.Based on this,this article summarizes and draws on the experienc e and lessons of Japan's negative interest rate policy practice,and proposes policy recommendations for China's monetary authorities to respond to the global negative interest rate environment.