基于贝叶斯网络的立体库作业风险分析

Operation risk analysis of stereoscopic warehouse based on Bayesian network

文中针对立体库作业全过程进行研究,提取了关键作业步骤,基于JSA方法系统开展作业过程的风险辨识,定量分析风险事件的发生概率,将识别到的风险事件映射到BN网络,进而评估作业失效风险,反向推理各风险因素的权重,最终提出相应的防护和消减措施。结果表明:作业工程的完成概率为96.37%,作业过程中物体打击和机械伤害是造成作业失败的重点风险事件,假定发生概率依次提升10%,将分别导致作业完成概率下降0.051%和0.037%,该分析结果可为立体库作业提供一定参考。

In this paper,the whole process of stereoscopic warehouse operation was studied,and the key operation steps were extracted.Risks during operation were identified based on JSA method,and the occurrence probability of risk events was quantitatively analyzed.Then,these identified risk events were mapped to BN network,and the operation failure risk was evaluated.The weight of each risk factor was reversely inferred.Finally,the corresponding protection and reduction measures were put forward.Results show that the completion probability of the operation is 96.37%,and the object strike and mechanical injury are the main factors leading to failure.Assuming that their occurrence probability increases by 10%,the completion probability of the operation will decrease by 0.051%and 0.037%respectively.The analysis results can serve as a reference for the operation of the stereoscopic warehouse.