基于情景构建的大面积停电事故风险自动评估方法

Automatic Risk Assessment Method for Large-scale Power Outages Based on Scenario Construction

大面积停电事故难以判断其事故源头,存在电力故障概率计算准确性低、评估一致性差以及风险评估所需时间长的问题,为此提出基于情景构建的大面积停电事故风险自动评估方法。该方法首先分别计算出电力线路断裂以及杆塔倒塌发生的概率,并将两种概率综合,获取发生大面积停电事故的综合概率,其次根据情景构建技术计算出大面积停电的危险程度,最后依据电力故障概率大小以此计算大面积停电风险的危险程度,实现大面积停电事故风险自动评估。实验结果表明,所提方法的电力故障概率计算准确性高、评估一致性好以及风险评估所需时间短。

It is difficult to determine the source of large-scale power outage accidents,and there are problems such as low accuracy of power failure probability calculation,poor evaluation consistency,and long risk assessment time.The method first calculates the probability of power line breakage and tower collapse,and integrates the two probabilities to obtain the comprehensive probability of large-scale power outages.The failure probability is used to calculate the danger level of large-scale power outage risk,and realize automatic assessment of large-scale power outage accident risk.The experimental results show that the proposed method has high accuracy of power failure probability calculation,good evaluation consistency and short time required for risk evaluation.