高位远程古滑坡既有变形特征和后续变形发展规律研究

Research on Existing Deformation Characteristics andSubsequent Deformation Development Laws of High-Elevation andLong-Runout Ancient Landslide

为准确掌握特殊类滑坡的变形规律,基于滑坡变形监测成果,先通过统计分析掌握其既有变形特征,再利用SOA-MKELM-GRNN模型、M-K检验和Spearman秩次检验分别开展累积变形、变形速率及变形加速度的后续发展特征分析,旨在通过各类变形序列信息的深入挖掘来充分掌握高位远程顺层岩质古滑坡的变形规律。分析结果表明,在既有变形特征分析方面,各监测点的累积变形具有持续增加趋势,最大累积变形量已达205.51 mm;变形速率波动范围较大,且在1.0~2.5 mm/d区间的分布比例略大;加速度序列值则是前期相对较大,后期略小,即该滑坡在监测前期变形加速更强。在滑坡后续变形发展特征分析方面,累积变形仍会进一步增加,但变形程度存在一定差异,即后续变形速率与加速度的发展规律不一致,以C1和C3监测点的后续变形更为不利,后续可侧重于该段的变形监测。

In order to accurately grasp the deformation law of special landslide,based on the landslide deformation monitoring results,we master the existing deformation characteristics through statistical analysis.Using SOA-MKELM-GRNN model,M-K analysis and Spearman rank test,we analyze the subsequent development characteristics of cumulative deformation sequence,deformation rate sequence and deformation acceleration sequence.The purpose is to fully grasp the deformation law of high-elevation and long-runout bedding rock ancient landslide through deep information mining of various deformation sequences.The results show that in the aspect of existing deformation characteristics analysis,the cumulative deformation of each monitoring point has a continuous increasing trend,and the maximum cumulative deformation has reached 205.51 mm.The deformation rate has a large fluctuation range,and its distribution proportion is relatively large in the range of 1.0-2.5 mm/d.The acceleration sequence value is relatively large in the early stage and slightly small in the later stage,indicating that the deformation acceleration of the landslide is stronger in the early monitoring stage.In terms of the analysis of subsequent deformation development characteristics of the landslide,the cumulative deformation will still further increase,but there is a certain difference in the deformation degree,that is,the development law of subsequent deformation rate and acceleration is inconsistent.The subsequent deformation of C1 and C3 monitoring points is more unfavorable,so we can focus on the subsequent deformation monitoring of this section.