基于周期分析法评估与预测美国肝细胞癌患者的生存率

Evaluation and prediction analysis of survival rates of Americanhepatocellular carcinoma patients through period analysis

目的:通过监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库对美国肝细胞癌(HCC)患者2017~2021年的生存率进行预测。方法:本研究的数据来源于SEER数据库。使用周期分析法对SEER数据库中2002~2016年HCC的数据进行整理和评估,针对不同组别的年龄、性别、种族、婚姻状况和手术情况的HCC预测未来3年和5年生存率。结果:在2002~2016年,HCC患者的相对生存率整体呈上升趋势,其中2002~2006年HCC患者的3年和5年生存率分别为36.4%和26.9%,2007~2011年HCC患者的3年和5年生存率分别为39.9%和30.3%,2012~2016年HCC患者的3年和5年生存率分别为48.6%和38.1%。通过预测,2017~2021年HCC患者的预期3年和5年生存率相比2002~2016年有较为明显的上升趋势,分别为49.40%和43.55%。此外,HCC患者的相对生存率在不同组别的年龄、性别、种族、婚姻状况和手术情况中呈现出不同的变化趋势。结论:周期分析法可有效预测2017~2021年美国HCC的生存率。了解过去2002~2016年HCC患者的3年和5年生存率和未来5年的预期生存率对治疗方略,提供降低HCC发病率和死亡率的策略的发展有着重要意义。

Objective:The study aimed to predict the 2017~2021 survival rate of patients with Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)in the United States through the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results(SEER)database.Methods:Data were provided by the SEER database.The period analysis to collate and evaluate hepatocellular carcinoma data from 2002 to 2016 in the SEER database were performed and predicted 3-and 5-year survival rates in the subsequent 5 years.Results:The relative survival rates showed an overall upward trend from 2002 to 2016,among which the 3-year and 5-year survival rates of HCC patients from 2002~2006 were 36.4%and 26.9%respectively,and the 3-year and 5-year survival rates of HCC patients from 2007~2011 were 39.9%and 30.3%respectively,and the 3-and 5-year survival rates of HCC patients from 2012~2016 were 48.6%and 38.1%respectively.The expected 3-and 5-year survival rates from 2017 to 2021 are 49.40%and 43.55%and show obvious upward trends compared to 2002~2016.The trends of the relative survival rates differed according to age group,sex,race,marital status,and surgery treatment.Conclusion:Period analysis provides an effective prediction of survival rate from 2017 to 2021.Understanding the 3-and 5-year survival rates of HCC patients from 2002 to 2016 and the expected survival rates in the subsequent 5 years is of great significance to the development of strategies for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma treatment and the reduction of its morbidity and mortality.