宁夏回族自治区生态系统服务时空变化及其权衡研究

Spatiotemporal changes and trade-off analysis of ecosystem services in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

综合土地利用、高程及降水等多源数据,采用InVEST模型、PLUS模型及相关性分析、热点分析等方法,探究2000~2020年宁夏生态系统服务(水质净化、土壤保持、碳存储及生境质量)时空特征及其权衡/协同关系,并进行2030年生态系统服务的模拟.结果表明:研究期内,近10年土地利用类型变化相对较大,且人类活动为其主要驱动因素;2000~2020年,除土壤保持服务外,宁夏的水质净化、碳存储及生境质量均呈下降趋势;相关性分析表明,氮输出与土壤保持及碳存储之间呈协同效应,土壤保持与碳存储之间存在协同关系,生境质量与氮输出及碳存储之间存在权衡关系;热点分析显示,水质净化服务与生境质量之间热点重叠区相对较高(均值达6.5%),但单位面积能够同时提供多种生态系统服务的区域占比较低且呈下降趋势;除土壤保持服务外,生态保护情景下更有利于生态系统功能的改善.研究结果凸显了生态保护在土地利用管理中的重要性,可为区域土地格局优化及资源的有效配置提供基础参考.

Based on the multi-source data such as land use,elevation and precipitation,this paper adopted methods such as InVEST model,PLUS model,correlation analysis and hotspot analysis,investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of ecosystem services(water purification,soil conservation,carbon storage,and habitat quality)in Ningxia from 2000 to 2020 as well as their trade-off/synergies,and simulated ecosystem services in 2030.As shown by results,during the research period,land use types changed relatively greatly in the past decades,and human activities were the main driving factor.From 2000 to 2020,except for soil conservation services,water purification in Ningxia,carbon storage and habitat quality all presented a declining trend.According to correlation analysis,there was a synergistic effect between nitrogen export and soil conservation and carbon storage.In addition,there was a synergistic relationship between soil conservation and carbon storage,as well as a trade-off between habitat quality and nitrogen export and carbon storage.As shown by hotspot analysis,hot spots overlapping areas between water purification services and habitat quality were relatively high(average value of 6.5%),but the proportion of regions that can simultaneously provide various ecosystem services per unit area was relatively low and showed a declining trend.In addition to soil conservation services,the ecological protection scenario was more favorable to improve ecosystem function.Research results,which highlight the importance of ecological protection in land use management,can provide a basic reference for the optimization of regional land patterns and the effective allocation of resources.