基于TOPSIS-RSR模型的山区普通公路运营安全风险评估实证研究

Operation Safety Risk Assessment of Mountain General Highway Based on TOPSIS-RSR Model

中国作为一个公路交通发达国家,每年发生的交通事故造成了大量人员伤亡和巨大的财产与经济损失,而山区普通公路常伴有路况较差、环境复杂、防护设施不足或落后等特点,更是交通事故频发的高危之地。为了减少山区普通公路事故的发生及其带来的各种损失,需要理清事故与风险源的关系,尤其是要进行科学合理的运营安全风险评估,找到安全影响较大的风险源,并提出防护措施。本文通过实地调查确定具有代表性的研究对象,并根据主动防护原则实地选择具有代表性的风险指标,然后采用TOPSIS熵权法确定风险指标的权重,并运用RSR秩和比法构建评估模型对山区普通公路进行实证分析,以确定公路风险划分等级,最后使用敏感性分析确定造成公路高风险等级的风险源。研究结果表明,山区干线公路风险程度可分为三个等级:公路急弯数、纵坡数、防护设施安全程度,需要重点排查;公路平曲线半径、路基宽度关涉风险程度高低,需要引起高度重视。这些风险源可通过驾驶员素养提升、道路本身风险防范、交通管理部门风险管理等措施加以规避,以切实预防山区普通公路交通事故的发生及减少交通事故发生的概率与损失。

Despite the developed road traffic,China’s annual traffic accidents have caused many casualties and huge economic losses,and mountainous roads are often accompanied by poor road conditions,complex environment,backward protection facilities and other characteristics,and it is a high-risk road section with frequent traffic accidents.In order to reduce the probability and loss of common highway accidents in mountainous areas,it is necessary to clarify the relationship between accidents and risk sources,especially to carry out scientific and reasonable risk assessment,find out the risk sources with greater impact,and put forward protective measures.This paper first determines the representative research objects through field investigation,then chooses representative risk indicators on the spot according to the principle of active protection,then uses TOPSIS entropy weight method to determine the weight of risk indicators,and then uses the assessment model constructed by RSR rank and ratio method to conduct empirical research on ordinary highways in mountainous areas to determine the risk classification levels of highways.Finally,sensitivity analysis is used to determine the risk sources that cause the high risk level of the highway.The results show that the risk degree of mountain trunk highway can be divided into three levels:The number of highway sharp bends,the number of longitudinal slopes,and the safety degree of protection facilities need to be investigated.The radius of highway flat curve and the width of roadbed are also with the problems with higher risk degree.These risk sources can prevent traffic accidents and reduce the probability and loss of traffic accidents in mountainous areas by adopting the measures of driver literacy improvement,road risk prevention and risk management of education and management departments.