京津冀城市群空间结构特征及其演变趋势判断

Spatial Structure Characteristics and Evolution Trend of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

建设京津冀世界级城市群需要充分掌握其空间结构的演进特征和趋势。为此,运用位序-规模法则、空间自相关模型以及灰色预测模型,对1995-2020年间京津冀城市群的空间结构进行测度分析,进而对其2020-2035年的空间结构进行趋势预测。结果显示:1995-2020年京津冀城市群的人口规模高位次区县发展程度较高,表现出较强的集聚能力,2020-2035年中位次城市发展加速,形成新的集聚能力;1995-2020年京津冀城市群的经济规模中位次城市的经济发展能力在逐步增强,空间结构的全局相关性显示1995-2035年大体上分为“上升-降低-上升”三个阶段,说明各区县空间依赖性经历增强、降低、再增强的过程。局部相关性分析表明,各核心增长极需要加大辐射区域,雄安新区的初步发展,可带动周边区域发展。

To build the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration into a world-class one we need to fully understand the evolution characteristics and trends of its spatial structure.This article aims to measure its spatial structure from 1995 to 2020 by using the order-scale rule spatial autocorrelation model and grey prediction model predict its spatial structure from 2020 to 2035.The results show a strong agglomeration capacity because from 1995 to 2020 its population size was at a high level and the sub-districts and counties were developing at a high level.On the other hand from 2020 to 2035 the sub-cities will develop at an accelerated pace forming a new agglomeration capacity.The results also show that from 1995 to 2020 the economic development capacity of the second largest city in the economic scale of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration was gradually enhanced.On the other hand the overall relevance of the spatial structure shows that the period from 1995 to 2035 is basically divided into three stages-rise-fall-rise.The local correlation analysis shows that each core growth pole needs to expand its radiation area and lead drive the development of its surrounding areas.