赣州市景观格局的演变与预测研究

The Evolution and Prediction of Landscape Pattern in Ganzhou City

对土地利用时空变化趋势进行分析,能够复现景观格局中的时空动态结构变化,对区域景观维护和发展具有重要的理论和现实作用。基于赣州市2010年、2015年和2020年的土地利用数据,从赣州市土地利用变化对景观格局分布的特征数据进行对比分析,并基于数据基础预测2030年景观格局的变化情况。结论:1)2010—2020年期间,耕地面积稳定,林地面积逐年减少,草地、水域、建设用地面积持续增加,建设用地向耕地和草地转移,草地向林地转移,耕地主要转自林地,建设用地面积转入土地面积增大,反映近几年建设性用地的面积有大规模扩张;2)2010—2020年景观斑块密度增加,景观聚合指数下降,分离指数上升,表明研究区景观延聚性增强,连接度下降;3)2030年景观异质性增加,聚集度下降,景观碎裂程度显著提高。

Analyzing the spatiotemporal change trend of land use can reproduce the spatiotemporal dynamic structural changes in landscape patterns,which has important theoretical and practical sig-nificance for regional landscape maintenance and development.Based on the land use data of Gan-zhou city in 2010,2015,and 2020,this study compares and analyzes the characteristics of land-scape pattern distribution and changes in land use change in Ganzhou city,and predicts the changes in landscape pattern in 2030 based on the data.Conclusion:1)During the period from 2010 to 2020,the area of cultivated land remained stable,while the area of forest land also decreased year by year.The area of grassland,water area,and construction land continued to increase,with con-struction land shifting to cultivated land and grassland,grassland shifting to forest land,and farm-land mainly turning to forest land.The area of construction land transferring to land increased,re-flecting a large-scale expansion of the area of construction land in recent years;2)From 2010 to 2020,the density of landscape patches increased,the landscape aggregation index decreased,and the separation index increased,indicating an increase in landscape aggregation and a decrease in connectivity in the study area;3)In 2030,landscape heterogeneity increased,aggregation de-creased,and landscape fragmentation significantly increased.