数字普惠金融、产业结构优化与农村经济增长

Digital Inclusive Finance,Industrial Structure Optimization and Rural Economic Growth

选取我国2011—2020年31个省份的面板数据,构建中介效应模型,实证检验数字普惠金融、产业结构优化、农村经济增长三者之间的逻辑关系;构建Hansen面板门槛回归模型,检验数字普惠金融发展下产业结构优化对农村经济增长的影响。结果显示:(1)数字普惠金融对农村经济增长有显著的正向影响,且能够通过产业结构优化间接促进农村经济增长。(2)在不同数字普惠金融发展水平下,产业结构高级化对农村经济增长的正向影响随着数字普惠金融的发展而增大,产业结构合理化与农村经济增长呈“U”型关系。(3)异质性分析发现,数字普惠金融能促进东、中、西部地区农村经济增长,且区域差异显著,即东部地区的促进效果最明显,中部次之,西部较弱。

This paper selects the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020,and constructs a mediating effect model to test the logic relationship amongdigital inclusive finance,industrial structure optimization,and rural economic growth,and then constructs a Hansen panel threshold regression model to test the effects of industrial structure optimization on rural economic growth under the development of digital inclusive finance.The findings of the research are as the following:(1)digital inclusive finance has a significant positive impact on rural economic growth and can indirectly promote rural economic growth through industrial structure optimization;(2)under different development levels of digital inclusive finance,the positive impact of industrial structure upgrading on rural economic growth increases with the development of digital inclusive finance,and the relationship between industrial structure rationalization and rural economic growth is U-shaped;(3)heterogeneity analysis shows that digital financial inclusion can promote rural economic growth in eastern,central and western regions,and the regional differences are significant,that is,the eastern region has the most obvious promotion effect,followed by the central region and the western region.