老龄化背景下人口结构对各省际碳排放的影响——基于空间杜宾模型

The Influence of Demographic Structure on Interprovincial Carbon Emissions under the Background of Aging——Based on the Spatial Durbin Model

基于我国2010—2019年30个省份的面板数据,构建空间杜宾模型,研究人口结构对碳排放的影响。结果表明:(1)人口规模和结构对碳排放具有显著的空间扩散性。(2)人口规模的扩大会增加本地区碳排放量,但间接效应不显著。少年抚养比增加会抑制碳排放的增长,劳动力以及老年人由于消费水平的的提高导致碳排放量增加。(3)技术水平的提升会增加碳排放量,人均GDP对本地区碳排放量影响不显著,但抑制邻近省的碳排放量。(4)老龄化对碳排放具有单门限效应。随着老龄化程度加深,经济增长对碳排放抑制作用逐渐降低。引导绿色消费、改善老年人环保意识、提高社会养老保险水平、完善基础设施以及推动绿色技术创新是解决老龄化背景下人口结构带来的碳排放增加的主要途径。

Based on the panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019,a spatial Durbin model is constructed to investigate the impact of population structure on carbon emissions.At the same time,the threshold effect of economic growth on carbon emissions is tested by using the aging degree as a threshold variable.The results show that:(1)population size and structure have significant spatial diffusion effects on carbon emissions;(2)an increase in population size leads to an increase in local carbon emissions,but the indirect effect is not significant;an increase in the youth dependency ratio can suppress the growth of carbon emissions,while an increase in the labor force and the elderly population leads to an increase in carbon emissions due to the increase in consumption levels;(3)technological level increases carbon emissions,and per capita GDP has no significant effect on local carbon emissions,but can inhibit carbon emissions in neighboring provinces;(4)aging has a single threshold effect on carbon emissions.With the deepening of aging degree,the inhibitory effect of economic growth on carbon emissions gradually decreases.Guiding green consumption,improving the environmental awareness of the elderly,raising the level of social pension insurance,improving infrastructure and promoting green technology innovation are the main ways to solve the increase of carbon emissions caused by the population structure in the context of aging.