源于自然灾害的财政风险研究:一个文献综述

Research on Fiscal Risks from Natural Disasters:A Literature Review

在长期的应急处置和灾害救助实践中,源于自然灾害的成本和损失被视为政府的或有债务,其不仅增加了政府财政压力和债务负担,而且还会对财政可持续性产生重要影响。围绕源于自然灾害的财政风险,我们对国内外相关研究进行了系统梳理和归纳,探讨了自然灾害及其风险决定因素的定义、自然灾害向财政风险传导的直接与间接渠道、影响自然灾害财政风险的客观与主观因素、自然灾害对财政风险影响的实证研究以及防范和控制自然灾害财政风险的思路与对策,初步建立起一个分析自然灾害财政风险的制度框架。

In the long-term practice of emergency response and disaster relief,the costs and losses arising from natural disasters are considered as contingent liabilities of the government,they not only increase the fiscal pressure and debt burden of governments,but also have an important impact on fiscal sustainability.Focusing on the fiscal risks arising from natural disasters,we systematically sorted out and summarized relevant research at home and abroad.This paper discusses the definition of natural disaster and its risk determinants,the direct and indirect channels of natural disaster transmission to fiscal risk,the objective and subjective factors that affect the fiscal risk of natural disaster,the empirical research results of natural disaster on fiscal risk,and the ideas and countermeasures to prevent and control the fiscal risk of natural disaster.