装配式预制构件市场信息价动态测算模型研究

Research on Dynamic Calculation Model of Market Information Price for Assembly-type Prefabricated Components

预制构件市场价格是装配式建筑总成本的关键组成部分,建设行政管理部门需要通过及时发布市场信息价来引导和规范预制构件市场。为克服信息价发布存在的时滞性,实现精细化、及时性管理,提出预制构件市场信息价的及时动态测算方法,通过构建马尔科夫优化后的SCGM(1,1)c预测模型实现对信息价周期内主要波动项人材机费用的预测,再将其代入信息价测算模型中实现市场信息价的动态测算。以W市预制外墙板市场信息价为例进行实证分析,结果表明:基于马尔科夫SCGM(1,1)c预测模型能够很好地满足预制构件市场信息价提前预测的需求,MAPE值为0.81%,相比于其他3种常用的价格预测方法,具有更强的适应性和稳定性。

The market price of prefabricated components is a key component of the total cost of prefabricated buildings.The construction administrative department needs to guide and standardize the prefabricated component market by publishing the market information prices in time.In order to overcome the time lag in the update of information price and realize the refined timeliness management,a timely and dynamic method for estimating the market information price of prefabricated components is proposed.The prediction of the main fluctuation items of labor cost,material cost and machinery cost within the information price period is realized by establishing the SCGM(1,1)c prediction model optimized by Markov,and then these costs are substituted into the information price measurement model to realize the dynamic prediction of the market information price.Taking the market information price of prefabricated external wall panels in Wuhan as an example,the result of the empirical analysis show that the SCGM(1,1)c prediction model based on Markov can meet the demand of predicting the market information price of prefabricated components in advance very well.The MAPE value is 0.89%.Compared with the other three commonly used price prediction methods,it has stronger adaptability and stability.