资源环境与高质量发展的耦合协调及空间关联——基于长三角城市群的数据分析

Coupled Coordination and Spatial Association of Resource&Environment and High Quality Development:Analysis Based on the Data in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

以牺牲环境为代价的粗放型增长与当下的高质量发展理念相悖,因此,实现资源环境与高质量发展的和谐统一显得尤其重要。以长三角26个城市为样本,构建资源环境与高质量发展综合评价指标体系,采用熵值法、耦合协调度模型、核密度估计、BP神经网络模型和空间马尔科夫链方法,分析2006—2019年长三角城市群资源环境与高质量发展的耦合协调水平、时空分布及空间关联性,并对未来5年的协调度进行预测。研究发现,长三角城市群资源环境与高质量发展指数均呈增长趋势;资源环境与高质量发展的耦合协调度处于勉强协调向初级协调转变;预测2020—2024年,协调度逐年上升,协调类型上升为中级协调;该协调度具有明显的空间溢出效应,城市协调度类型受邻域类型的影响,且存在拮抗、磨合、协调三个“俱乐部趋同”。最后提出了相关政策建议。

The extensive economic growth mode at the cost of the environment is contrary to the concept of high-quality development in the current situation,so it is particularly important to achieve the harmonious unity of resource and environment and high-quality development.Taking 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta as the research object,after constructing the comprehensive evaluation index system of resources,environment and high-quality development,the entropy weight method,coupling coordination degree model,kernel density estimation,BP neural network model and spatial Markov chain method are used to analyze the coupling coordination level,spatial and temporal distribution pattern and spatial correlation between resources and environment and high-quality development in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration from 2006 to 2019,and the coordination degree in the next five years is predicted.The main conclusions are as follows:during the study period,the resources and environment and the high-quality development index of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration show an increasing trend;the coupling coordination degree of resources,environment and high-quality development in the Yangtze River Delta region is in a state of transition from bare coordination to primary coordination;from 2020 to 2024,the predicted value of coordination degree increases year by year,and the type of coordination increases to intermediate coordination;the coordination degree has an obvious spatial spillover effect,and the type of urban coordination degree is affected by the type of neighborhood,and there are three club convergence:antagonism,run-in and coordination.Finally,relevant policy recommendations are put forward based on the above analysis.