均衡性转移支付、税制结构与共同富裕

Equalization Transfer Payment,Tax Structure and Common Prosperity

新发展阶段,要加快实现共同富裕,就需要重视均衡性转移支付和税制结构的调节作用。基于极值熵值法测度的共同富裕综合指数构建面板Tobit模型、空间滞后模型和门槛模型,从均衡性转移支付和税制结构的不同视角,探究上述因素对共同富裕的多重影响,结果发现:从基准回归和空间滞后模型看,共同富裕存在显著的空间溢出效应,均衡性转移支付对共同富裕的直接和空间促进效应尚未体现,以直接税和间接税为主体的税制结构的直接和空间效应显著为正,且均衡性转移支付能够调节税制结构的直接和空间溢出效应。进一步分析发现,均衡性转移支付与共同富裕之间存在由“门槛效应”引起的非线性关系,合理的均衡性转移支付显著促进共同富裕,且随着均衡性转移支付的提升,其促进效应不断减弱。动态空间滞后模型显示,共同富裕滞后一期的直接和空间溢出效应均显著为正。以上研究结论对中国政府优化财税体制、推进共同富裕具有重要启示。

In the new stage of development,to accelerate the realization of common prosperity,we need to pay attention to the equalization transfer payment and the adjustment of tax structure.Based on the comprehensive index of common prosperity measured by extreme entropy method,panel Tobit model,spatial lag model and threshold model are constructed to explore the multiple influences of the above factors on common prosperity from different perspectives of equalization transfer payment and tax structure.The results show that:From the baseline regression and spatial lag model,common prosperity has significant spatial spillover effect,and the direct and spatial promoting effect of equalization transfer payment on common prosperity has not been reflected.The direct and spatial effects of the tax structure dominated by direct tax and indirect tax are significantly positive,and the equalization transfer payment can adjust the direct and spatial spillover effects of the tax structure.From the point of view of threshold effect,reasonable equalization transfer payment can effectively promote common prosperity,and with the improvement of equalization transfer payment,the promoting effect is weakening.The dynamic spatial lag model shows that the direct and spatial spillover effects of common prosperity lag period are significantly positive.The above research conclusions have important implications for the Chinese government to optimize the fiscal and taxation system and promote common prosperity.