电子商务与县域经济增长——基于电子商务进农村综合示范政策的准自然实验

E-Commerce and Growth of County Economy——Quasi-natural Experiments Based on the Comprehensive Demonstration Policy of E-Commerce into Rural Areas

随着数字乡村战略的全面推进,电子商务依托数字技术赋能农业发展,为县域经济注入了新的活力。为考察电子商务进农村综合示范项目的政策效应,利用2000—2020年中国1846个县的面板数据,以夜间灯光数据反映县域经济水平,构建多期双重差分模型对政策效果进行评估。研究结果表明:电子商务进农村显著提升了示范县的经济水平,尤其在贫困地区提升效果显著;示范县的政策效应主要是通过促进农民增收实现的,乡村就业和消费在当前阶段尚未发挥显著作用;异质性分析结果显示,信息化水平能够强化电商示范县的影响,而不同人力资本下的电商示范县政策的影响效应未表现出明显差异。因此,政府应进一步扩大农村电商覆盖面,拓展电子商务相关服务业,畅通城乡经济循环,推动县域经济发展。

With the comprehensive promotion of the digital village strategy,e-commerce relies on digital technology to empower agricultural development,injecting new vitality into the county economy.In order to investigate the policy effect of the comprehensive demonstration project of e-commerce into rural areas,this research uses the panel data of 1846 counties in China from 2000 to 2020,uses night light data to represent the level of county economy,and constructs a multi-period DID model to evaluate the policy effect.The results show that the work of e-commerce into rural areas has significantly improved the economic level of the demonstration counties,especially in poor areas.The policy effect of the demonstration counties is mainly achieved by promoting the increase of farmers’income,and rural employment and consumption have not yet played a significant role at the current stage;the heterogeneity analysis results show that the level of informatization can strengthen the average processing effect of e-commerce demonstration counties,while the processing effect under different human capitals does not show significant differences.Therefore,the government should further enlarge the coverage of rural e-commerce,expand the e-commerce-related service industries,smooth the urban and rural economic cycle,and promote the development of county economy.