基于资产负债表的我国上市公司财务风险预测研究

Research on Financial Risk Prediction of Listed Companies in China Based on Balance Sheet

建立企业财务风险预警机制对我国实体经济健康发展和资本市场稳定运行有着重要意义。本研究以2016—2020年中国沪深A股非金融上市公司为样本,基于MFA分数模型对我国上市公司的财务风险进行预测研究。研究发现,MFA分数模型相对于Altman-Z值模型预测能力提高了9.2%。进一步研究发现,MFA分数模型可以用来考察宏观经济变化对企业资产负债表的影响。

Establishing an early warning mechanism for enterprise financial risk is of great significance to the healthy development of China’s real economy and the stable operation of the capital market.This study predicts the financial risks of listed companies in China based on the MFA score model by taking the non-financial listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2016 to 2020 as a sample.Compared with the Altman-Z score model,the prediction ability of MFA score model is improved by 9.2%.Further research shows that MFA score model can capture the impact of macroeconomic changes on corporate balance sheets.