贺兰山东麓主栽酿酒葡萄品种土内萌芽预测

Prediction of germination in soil of the main wine grape varieties in eastern Helan Mountain

[目的]对贺兰山东麓主栽酿酒葡萄品种土内萌芽与温度关系分析,筛选出适合不同品种酿酒葡萄的萌芽率-土壤温度估算模型,为生产上酿酒葡萄出土作业的适宜时间提供参考,也为深入研究酿酒葡萄需热量打下基础。[方法]以主栽品种赤霞珠和黑比诺为材料,利用不同埋土厚度改变枝条处土壤温度,于冬芽土内萌发期间分批次出土,统计萌芽率。参考常用的6种需热量模型(生长度小时模型、有效积温模型、最大积温模型、温度最大值累计模型、平均温度累计模型、热量模型)和≥0℃、2℃、4℃、6℃、8℃和10℃有效积温模型计算出土前葡萄枝条处的土壤温度,普查不同品种酿酒葡萄萌芽率和土壤温度的关系,建立关系模型,筛选最优回归曲线。[结果]结果表明赤霞珠和黑比诺萌芽率和土壤温度均显著相关,其中通过热量模型计算的值相关性最差。土壤温度对赤霞珠土内萌芽率的影响曲线规律表现为一元二次或一元三次方程变化趋势,最优回归曲线方程为Y=7.3E-04x2-0.3976x+54.006,R2为0.845,模型效率系数为0.845;土壤温度对黑比诺土内萌芽率的影响曲线规律表现为S曲线,最优回归曲线方程为Y=e((6.08287-7585.781/x)),R2为0.932,模型效率系数为0.77。[结论]3日滑动平均土壤温度≥8℃的平均温度累计值和小时有效温度累计值分别适用于赤霞珠和黑比诺土内萌芽率预测。

【Objective】The relationship between germination in the soil of the main wine grapes and temperature in eastern Helan Mountain was analyzed,to select germination rate-soil temperature estimation model suitable for different varieties of wine grapes,which provided a reference for the appropriate time for the unearthed operation of wine grapes,and also laid a foundation for the in-depth study of the heat requirement of wine grapes.【Method】Using Cabernet Sauvignon and Pinot Noir as test material,to change the soil temperature at the branches by using different buried soil thicknesses,which was unearthed in batches during the germination period in the soil,the germination rates were counted.Using six common heat demand models(growing degree hours model,effective accumulated temperature model,maximum accumulated temperature model,maximum temperature accumulation model,average temperature accumulation model and heat model)and the effective accumulated temperature models including≥0℃,2℃,4℃,6℃,8℃and 10℃to calculate the soil temperature at the branches before unearthed,to investigate the relationship between the germination rate and soil temperature of different varieties of wine grapes,and screened the optimal regression curve.【Result】The germination rate of Cabernet Sauvignon and Pinot Noir is significantly correlated with soil temperature,and the correlation of values calculated by the heat model is the worst.The influence curve of soil temperature-the germination rate of Cabernet Sauvignon shows the change trend of quadratic or cubic equation of one variable.The optimal regression curve equation is Y=7.3E-04x2-0.3976x+54.006,2 R is 0.845,and the model efficiency coefficient is 0.845.The influence curve of soil temperature-the germination rate of Pinot shows the change trend of S-curve.The optimal regression curve equation is Y=e(6.08287-7585.781/x),2 R is 0.932,and the model efficiency coefficient is 0.77.【Conclusion】The cumulative average temperature and hourly effective temperature of 3-day sliding average soil temperature≥8℃are respectively suitable for predicting germination rate of Cabernet Sauvignon and Pinot Noir.