基于综合降雨量的临安区洪涝灾害损失快速评估

Rapid Assessment of Flood Disaster Loss in Lin’an District Based on Comprehensive Rainfall

洪涝灾害损失快速评估对救灾应急与指挥决策具有重大意义。本文基于灾害过程中最大1~3 d降雨量与过程降雨量,构建综合降雨量指标。结合临安区历史洪涝灾情数据,分别以最大2 d、最大3 d降雨量和综合降雨量为参数拟合脆弱性曲线,构建损失估算模型,实现对洪涝灾害导致的人口、农作物、房屋和直接经济损失进行快速评估。采用2020年临安遭受的洪涝灾害为例,进行模型精度验证与对比分析。结果表明:综合降雨量估算精度最高,各项承灾体损失估算精度达70%以上,能较为快速准确地评估临安区洪涝灾害损失。

Rapid damage assessment of flood disaster is of great significance to emergency response and command decision.Based on the largest 1~3 d rainfall and multi-day cumulative rainfall in the disaster process,the comprehensive rainfall was constructed.Combined with the historical flood disaster data in Lin'an,the largest 2 d rainfall,largest 3 d rainfall and comprehensive rainfall were used as parameters to fit the vulnerability curve,and the loss estimation model was constructed to realize the rapid assessment of population,crops,houses and direct economic losses caused by flood disasters.Taking the flood disaster in 2020 as an example,the accuracy of the model was verified and compared.The results showed that the estimation accuracy of the comprehensive rainfall was the highest,and the accuracy of loss estimation for each disaster-bearing body was above 70%,which can accurately and quickly evaluate the loss of flood Lin'an.