基于环境承载力的机场发展策略研究

Research on Airport Development Strategy Based on Airport Environmental Carrying Capacity

针对机场发展过程中日益增长的航班量和承载力的不匹配导致运行效率低下、环境恶化等问题,制定适宜的机场发展策略,可提升自身承载能力,更好地促进机场供需平衡。本文基于机场环境承载力的评价指标和影响因素确定机场发展策略的决策目标和决策变量,通过对决策变量的统计分析,设置了6种发展情景下的9种机场发展策略,使用系统动力学模型对各策略的决策目标进行预测,在此基础上结合熵权TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution)法提出机场发展策略决策方法,并以广州白云机场为对象进行实例分析,探究不同发展策略的优劣和可行性。结果表明:广州白云机场优先实施经济发展策略和环境保护策略能够较为有效地促进机场可持续发展。

In the process of airport development,the mismatch between the increasing number of flights and the carrying capacity has led to problems,such as low operating efficiency and environmental degradation.Appropriate airport development strategies can improve its own carrying capacity and better promote the balance of supply and demand at the airport.Based on the evaluation indicators and influencing factors of the airport environmental carrying capacity(AECC),this paper determined the decision-making goals and variables of the airport development strategy.Through the statistical analysis of the decision-making variables,9 airports under 6 development scenarios were set up.To propose the airport development strategy decision-making method,the system dynamics(SD)model was used to predict the decision-making objectives of each strategy,combined with the entropy-weight TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)method.Then took Guangzhou Baiyun Airport as the object to explore the advantages and disadvantages and feasibility of different development strategies.The results show that Guangzhou Baiyun Airport prioritizing economic development strategy and environmental protection strategy can effectively promote the sustainable development of the airport.