关中地区设施辣椒发育期模拟模型的适应性研究与应用

Adaptation and application of development stage model for greenhouse pepper in Guanzhong area

为解决现有构建作物发育期模型方法繁多而在辣椒上的研究较少,以及关于发育期模型的研究多偏重模拟准确性而忽视应用性这2个问题,本研究利用2茬试验和2个辣椒品种,采用有效积温法、线性分段函数、指数函数、幂指函数这4种方法及2个计算步长(d和h)建立并验证了辣椒发育期模拟模型,并将筛选出的最佳模型与辣椒采收期的上市价格建立联系。结果表明:1)4种方法建立的设施辣椒生育期模型模拟效果为:幂指函数模型>线性分段函数模型>指数函数模型>有效积温法,基于幂指函数建立的设施辣椒发育期模拟模型观测值与模拟值的均方根误差在5.77~8.10 d,平均相对误差在5%~7%,平均绝对误差在3.33~5.00 d;2)除有效积温法外,提高计算精度,各模型以h为步长能有效降低模拟误差;3)不同时间点定植,辣椒从定植到采收的模拟天数在56~159 d,对应的采收期均价在2.93~6.48元/kg。‘冬郎’在9月16日定植时,采收期的平均价格最高,为6.48元/kg;‘欢乐’在10月1日定植时采收期均价最高,为6.40元/kg。本研究可为广大研究者选用合适的模型提供参考,为种植者合理衡量定植时间以获得最大效益提供理论依据。

Although there are many methods for constructing crop development stage models,only a few studies were on constructing the models for chili peppers.And the research on development stage models focuses on the accuracy of simulation and ignores the applicability.To address above problems,two crop experiments and two pepper varieties were explored.Four methods with effective accumulated temperature method,linear subsection function,exponential function and power exponential function and two calculation steps(days and hours)were adopted to establish and validate a simulation model of pepper development period.The correlation between the best model and the price of pepper was established.The results show that:1)The effects of models constructed by the four methods from high to low were power index function>linear segmentation function>exponential function>effective accumulated temperature method.The root mean square error of the power index function model between 5.77 to 8.10 d,the mean relative error was from 5%to 7%,and the mean absolute error is between 3.33 to 5.00 d;2)In addition to effective accumulated temperature method,improving the calculation accuracy can effectively reduce the simulation error by taking h as a step size of each model;3)The simulated days from planting to harvesting of pepper at different time points are between 56-159 d,and the corresponding average price of harvesting period was between 2.93-6.48 yuan/kg.When pepper variety‘Donglang'was planted on September 16th,the average price during the harvest period was the highest,at 6.48 yuan/kg.Pepper variety‘Huanle'had the highest average price during the harvest period when it was planted on October 1 st,at 6.40 yuan/kg.This study provides a reference for the majority of researchers to choose a suitable model,and a theoretical basis for growers to reasonably measure the planting time and obtain the maximum benefit.