基于变步长预测控制的综合能源系统热电协调运行方法研究

Heat⁃power Coordinated Predictive Control of Integrated Energy Systems with Non⁃constant Prediction Step

在双碳目标的驱动下,能源行业正加速向高效化、低碳化、可持续化发展。构建综合能源系统,实现能源高效利用和高比例可再生资源的就地消纳,是推动能源行业低碳转型的重要技术路径。然而,综合能源系统不同能量转换过程之间的显著时间尺度差异,提高了系统协调控制难度。为此,提出了一种变预测步长的热电协调预测控制策略,通过构建预测步长与预测步数之间的定量关系,以典型的离网型热电综合能源系统为例,实现系统热、电过程动态特征的全面刻画,以期获得良好的热电协调控制效果。仿真结果验证了所提控制策略的有效性和优越性。

Driven by the target of the"peak carbon,carbon neutral",the energy sector is accelerating towards high⁃effi⁃ciency,decarbonization and sustainability.Developing integrated energy systems to achieve high⁃efficient utilization of en⁃ergy and high⁃proportion consumption of local renewable resources is an essential technological path to promote low carbon transformation in the energy sector.However,there are significant time⁃scale discrepancies between the different energy conversion processes in an integrated energy system,which pose a challenge for the coordinative control of the system.Therefore,a heat⁃power coordinated predictive control strategy with variable prediction step is proposed for a typical off⁃grid heat⁃power integrated energy system.By constructing a quantitative relationship between the length of prediction steps and the number of prediction steps,this strategy achieves a comprehensive characterization of the systematic dynamics a⁃mong the thermal and electrical processes to obtain satisfactory heat⁃power coordinated control performances.The simula⁃tion results verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed control strategy.