“一带一路”倡议对我国FDI技术溢出效应的影响

The Impact of BRI on China's FDI Technology Spillover Effects

国际直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment,FDI)能够产生技术溢出效应,探究“一带一路”倡议对FDI技术溢出效应的影响与作用机制,可为我国推进制度型开放提供参考。基于2000—2022年我国31个省份(未含香港、澳门、台湾地区)291个地级及以上城市的面板数据,利用DID模型,分析“一带一路”倡议对我国FDI技术溢出效应的影响。研究表明,“一带一路”倡议对我国FDI技术溢出效应具有显著提升作用。根据机制检验结果,“一带一路”倡议通过优化对外政策环境、改善基础设施配套、加强对外经贸合作、增进人文交流,促进以跨国公司为载体的生产要素国际流动,增强FDI技术溢出效应。根据调节作用分析结果,人力资本水平越高,与发达经济体技术差距越小,政府干预能力越弱,“一带一路”倡议对我国FDI技术溢出效应的影响越小。根据异质性分析结果,“一带一路”倡议对FDI技术溢出效应的影响在东部地区显著为负,在中部地区显著为正,在西部和东北地区潜力很大;“一带一路”倡议提出后,碳排放与FDI技术溢出效应在高碳行业存在部分替代关系,在低碳行业存在显著替代关系;碳排放与FDI技术溢出效应在采掘业存在显著替代关系,在电力及相关行业存在部分替代关系,在制造业不存在替代关系。为进一步响应“一带一路”倡议,提升我国FDI技术溢出效应,要充分发挥跨国公司的技术纽带作用,使之成为“双循环”新发展格局的连接点、支撑点;积累高级人力资本,提升技术溢出吸收能力;重视FDI技术溢出效应的地区差异,加强对欠发达地区的政策扶持;重点加强高碳行业绿色低碳技术创新,推动经济绿色发展。

Foreign direct investment(FDI)can generate technology spillover effect,and exploring the impact and influencing mechanism of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)on China's FDI technology spillover effect can provide us with reference in terms of promoting institutional openness.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)and 291 prefecture-level cities,and with the help of DID model,the authors analyze the impact of BRI on China's FDI technology spillover effect.It is found that BRI has significantly promoted China's FDI technology spillover effect.The mechanism test shows that BRI promotes the international flow of production factors taking multinational corporations as the carriers and enhance the spillover effect of FDI technology through optimizing foreign policy environment,improving infrastructure support,strengthening foreign economic and trade cooperation,and enhancing cultural and people-to-people exchanges.Moderating analysis shows that,with the increase of the level of human capital,the gap between China and the advanced economies will be narrowed,governments'capability for intervention will be weakened,and the impact of BRI on China's FDI technology spillover effect will be weakened.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of BRI on China's FDI technology spillover effect is negative in the eastern regions,it is significantly positive in the central regions,and the potential of that is great in the western and northeastern regions.After the introduction of BRI,it is found that there is partial substitution relationship between carbon emissions and spillover effect of FDI technology in high-carbon industries,and significant substitution relationship in low-carbon industries.There is significant substitution relationship between carbon emissions and spillover effect of FDI technology in extraction industry,partial substitution relationship in electronic and related industries,and no substitution relationship in manufacturing industry.To further respond to BRI and improve the spillover effect of China's FDI technology,we should,first,fully give play to the technology link role of multinational enterprises,and make them to become the points of linkage and support of the new development pattern of“dual circulation”;second,we should accumulate high-level human capital and improve our capability for attracting technology spillovers;third,we should pay more attention to the regional differences of the spillover effect of FDI technology and strengthen policy support in less developed regions;and fourth,we should focus on strengthening innovation in green low-carbon technology in high-carbon industry and promote the development of green economy.