数字经济对服务业结构的影响——“低端锁定”还是“高端促进”?

The Impact of Digital Economy on the Service Industry Structure-“Low‐end Locking”or“High‐end Promotion”

随着数字技术逐渐加入社会生产过程,数字经济对产业内部结构将产生深刻影响,为研究数字经济对服务业内部结构的影响,在2011—2019年地级及以上城市面板数据的基础上,构建实证模型进行实证分析检验。研究结果表明,数字经济对服务业结构的影响效应为“高端促进”,而非“低端锁定”,在一系列稳健性检验后,结果仍然成立。在作用机制上,数字经济通过提高地区人力资本水平促进服务业结构升级。空间效应检验结果显示本地的数字经济发展能够带动邻地的服务业结构升级。数字经济对服务业结构升级的影响受人力资本水平的调节,当人力资本水平超过门槛值时,表现出持续增强的促进作用。本文的研究证实数字经济是服务业结构升级的重要推动力,能够为数字经济时代破除经济“结构性减速”、优化产业内部结构提供有益启示。

With digital technology gradually joining the social production process,digital economy will have a profound impact on the internal structure of the industry.In order to study the impact of the digital economy on the internal structure of the service industry,based on the Panel data of prefecture level and above cities from 2011 to 2019,an empirical model was constructed for empirical analysis and testing.It is confirmed that the impact of digital economy on the service industry structure is“high‐end promotion”,rather than“low‐end locking”.After a series of robustness tests,it remains convincing.In terms of mechanism,digital economy promotes the upgrading of the service industry structure by improving the level of regional human capital.The spatial effect test shows that the development of local digital economy can promote the upgrading of the service industry structure in neighboring regions.The impact of the digital economy on the upgrading of the service industry structure is regulated by the level of human capital.When the level of human capital exceeds the threshold,it shows a continuous enhancement of the role of promotion.It is confirmed that the digital economy is an important driving force for the upgrading of the service industry structure,which can provide useful inspiration for the digital economy era to break the“structural slowdown”of the economy and optimize the internal structure of the industry.