基于MaxEnt和GIS的川甘槭潜在适宜分布区评估

Potential suitable distribution assessment of Acer yui based on MaxEnt and GIS

为探明濒危植物川甘槭的潜在适宜分布区范围,基于气侯、土壤和地形因子数据,利用最大熵(maximum entropy,MaxEnt)模型和地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)对川甘槭分布区进行了研究。受试者工作特征(Receiver Operating Characteristic,ROC)曲线下的面积(area under curve,AUC)值为0.998,表明MaxEnt模型预测可靠性极高。综合考虑环境因子的贡献率、置换重要性以及实地调查结果,确定最干月降水量、降水量变异系数、土壤有效含水量、年降水量、坡度、USDA土壤质地分类作为影响川甘槭适宜生长区分布的主要环境因子。预测结果显示:最适宜川甘槭生长的区域为甘肃省迭部县和四川省九寨沟县,其次是甘肃省舟曲县、文县、宕昌县和四川省松潘县。川甘槭适宜分布区范围主要为经纬度在32.80°N-34.24°N和102.86°E-105.11°E之间、海拔1 500~2 400 m、年降水量600~750 mm、土壤有效含水量150 mm·m^(-1)左右的地区。上述研究结果填补了川甘槭自然分布区与生境因子研究上的空缺,对于川甘槭的保护和利用具有重要意义。

This article investigates the potential suitable range of the endangered plant Acer yui based on climate,soil,and terrain factors using the maximum entropy(MaxEnt) model and geographic information system(GIS).The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC value) of the MaxEnt model was 0.998,indicating a high reliability of the prediction.Taking the contribution rate and permutation importance of environmental factors as well as field investigation results into consideration,the main factors influencing the distribution of suitable growth areas for the plant were identified as precipitation of the driest month,variation coefficient of precipitation,soil available water content,annual precipitation,slope,and topsoil USDA texture classification.The prediction results showed that Diebu County of Gansu Province and Jiuzhaigou County of Sichuan Province were the most suitable areas for the growth of Acer yui,followed by Zhouqu County,Wen County,Dangchang County of Gansu Province and Songpan County of Sichuan Province.The suitable distribution area of Acer yui was mainly between northern latitude 32.80° to 34.24° and east longitude 102.86° to 105.11°,with an altitude of 1 500 to 2 400 meters,an annual precipitation of 600 to 750 mm,and a soil available water content of about 150 mm·m~(-1).The above results filled the gap in the research on the natural distribution area and habitat factors of Acer yui,and were of great significance for its protection and utilization.