黄河流域碳排放效率与产业结构优化耦合协调分析

Coupling Coordination of Carbon Emission Efficiency and Industrial Structure Optimization in the Yellow River Basin

基于包含非期望产出的SBM模型、Tobit计量模型和耦合协调度模型,研究2000—2021年黄河流域九省份碳排放效率与产业结构优化耦合协调性及其影响机制。结果表明:黄河流域碳排放效率和产业结构的协调性呈先下降后上升的趋势,2006—2016年整体处于濒临失调状态,2017—2021年逐步恢复,除山西外基本实现协调发展;耦合协调水平空间格局较为稳定,但存在显著的区域差异,总体呈上游、下游、中游依次降低趋势;甘肃、宁夏、陕西、山西碳排放存在严重滞后现象;调控能源消费结构和人力资本是改善黄河流域碳排放效率与产业结构优化耦合协调水平的重要途径。

Based on undesirable-SBM model,Tobit model and coupling coordination model,the coordination degree and influence mechanism between carbon emission efficiency and industrial structure optimization in nine provinces of the Yellow River basin from 2000 to 2021 were studied.Results showed that:The coordination of carbon emission efficiency and industrial structure in the Yellow River basin decreased first and then increased.From 2006 to 2016,it was on the verge of imbalance,and then gradually recovered.Coordinated development basically achieved except for Shanxi Province.The horizontal spatial pattern of coupling coordination was relatively stable,but there were significant regional differences.Overall,there was a decreasing trend in upstream,downstream,and midstream.And the carbon emissions in Gansu,Ningxia,Shaanxi and Shanxi were seriously lagging behind.Regulating energy consumption structure and human capital is an important way to improve the coupling and coordination level between carbon emission efficiency and industrial structure optimization in the Yellow River basin.