河南省人口老龄化时空演变及影响因素研究

Research on Spatial-temporal Evolution and the Influencing Factors of Population Aging in Henan Province

利用2000—2020年河南省城市人口老龄化发展数据和3次人口普查数据,探究人口老龄化时间演变趋势,并通过探索性空间分析方法和地理加权回归模型分析河南省人口老龄化的空间差异和集聚特征以及人口老龄化时空演变区域差异的驱动机制。结果表明:(1)2000年以来,河南省老年人口数量和比重呈现出阶梯式递增—“U”型调整—直线增长的态势,且深度老龄化已成为必然趋势。(2)河南省人口老龄化空间集聚特征明显,差异化显著,沿黄河流域呈“西北低、东南高”的空间格局。(3)老龄化的空间分布受内驱力和外驱力的共同作用。作为人口结构差异内驱力的自然增长率和净迁移率降低导致人口基数小的地区老龄化程度提高;而外驱力因素中,经济及医疗发展越好、教育水平越高、工业产业越发达的地区老龄化程度越低。

Using urban population aging development data and three population censuses in Henan Province from 2000 to 2020,explored the temporal evolution trend of population aging,and analyzed the spatial differences and agglomeration characteristics of population aging and the driving mechanism of regional differences in temporal and spatial evolution of population aging in Henan Province through exploratory spatial data and geographically weighted models.The results show that:(1)Since 2000,the number and proportion of elderly population in Henan Province have shown a stepwise increment,U-shaped adjustment and linear growth,and deep aging has become an inevitable trend.(2)The spatial clustering of population aging in Henan Province is obvious,with significant differentiation,and the spatial pattern of“low in the northwest and high in the southeast”along the Yellow River basin.(3)The spatial distribution of aging is affected by a combination of“internal and external forces”.The natural growth rate and the decrease in net migration rate,which are internal drivers of demographic differences,lead to a higher degree of aging in areas with a small population base,while among the external factors,the better the economic and medical development,the higher the level of education,and the more developed industrial industries,the lower the degree of aging.