数字服务贸易发展指数评价及影响因素分析——基于50个国家的面板数据

Evaluation of Digital Service Trade Development Index and Analysis of Influencing Factors——Basedon Panel Data of 50 Countries

本文基于2011—2020年50个国家的面板数据,综合利用熵权TOPSIS模型、泰尔指数及核密度估计,对各国数字服务贸易发展指数进行了分析对比,并建立双向固定效应模型检验了数字服务贸易发展的影响因素。研究发现:发达国家数字服务贸易发展水平整体较高,增速较慢,发展中国家水平较低,但增速较高;样本国家所在洲之间的数字服务贸易发展水平差异性逐年扩大;美、中数字服务贸易发展水平分居一、二名,其中美国在数字基建和数字安全等方面优势凸显,无明显“掣肘”项;中国的主要优势集中在数字技术创新、数字基建,但数字服务贸易壁垒、结构及营运环境则表现欠佳。实证检验中,服务贸易开放度、服务业增加值、城镇化进程等五个因素对数字服务贸易发展水平有显著影响,但在不同收入水平国家间存在异质性。基于此,提出推进数字服务业开放、推动新兴数字服务业发展、改善数字服务业营运环境的对策建议。

Based on the panel data of 50 countries from 2011 to 2020,this paper uses the entropy-weighted TOPSIS model,Theil index and kernel density estimation to analyze and compare the develop-ment indexes of digital service trade in various countries,and establishes a two-way fixed effect model to test the influencing factors of the development of digital service trade.The results show that the develop-ment level of digital service trade in developed countries is relatively high and the growth rate is slower,while that in developing countries is relatively low but the growth rate is higher;The differences in the de-velopment level of digital service trade among the continents of the sample countries are increasing year by year;The development level of digital service trade between the United States and China ranks first and second respectively,of which the United States has prominent advantages in the digitai infrastructure and digital security,without obvious constraints;China's main strengths focus on digital technology innovation and digital infrastructure,but digital service trade barriers,structure and operating environment are poor.In empirical testing,the openness of service trade,the added value of service industry and the process of urbanization have a significant impact on the development level of digital service trade,but there is hetero-geneity among countries with different income levels.Based on this,this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions to promote the opening up of the digital service industry,promote the development of emerging digital service industries,and improve the operating environment of the digital service industry.