中国技能溢价上升的驱动因素:理论分析与实证研究

Driving Factors of Rising Skill Premium in China:Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Research

探索技能溢价上升的来源与机制,推动工资收入公平分配是实现共同富裕的重要抓手之一。基于多部门Ricardo-Viner一般均衡模型将技能溢价分解为结构转型效应、中性技术进步效应、技能偏向性技术进步效应和劳动供给效应,采用中国1990—2018年行业面板数据与2003—2018年省级面板数据,结合反事实分析法与GMM估计方法考察不同效应对技能溢价影响的阶段性特征,从整体性与历史性视角刻画中国技能溢价上升的来源、机制及其动态演进趋势。结果表明:(1)各行业均满足资本—技能互补条件,且技能密集型服务行业资本—技能互补性更强;(2)资本—技能互补条件下,结构转型因素长期稳健提升了技能溢价,特别是2001年后影响效应显著增强;(3)中性技术进步与技能偏向性技术进步均呈现“先抑制—后提升”技能溢价的趋势特征,转折点分别在2008年与2014年前后;(4)可能源于技能错配的存在,技能劳动相对供给增加并未有效抑制技能溢价上升,反而在2003年后由负向转为显著的正向效应。综上可以预见,未来一段时期内,技能溢价仍将呈现上升趋势。研究结论为确立更加公平的工资收入分配制度提供了现实依据与理论参考。

Exploring the source and mechanism of rising skill premium in China and promoting equal distribution of wage is one of the important ways to achieve common prosperity.We decompose the skill premium into four different effects driven respectively by structural transformation,Hicks neutral technological change,skill-biased technological change and labor supply in a multi-sector general equilibrium model.Using the industry-level panel data of China during 1990-2018 and provincial panel data during 2003-2018,combined with counterfactual analysis and GMM,we quantify empirically the periodical characteristics of the four different effects on skill premium.This study describes the source,mechanism and dynamic evolution trend of the rising skill premium in China from a holistic and historical perspective.The results show that:Firstly,all industries meet the condition of“capital-skill complementary”,among which,the capital-skills complementary is stronger in the skill-intensive service industries;Secondly,the effect of structural transformation has steadily enhanced the skill premium in the long run under the condition of“capital-skills complementary”,and its effect has been significantly augmented since 2001;Thirdly,Hicks neutral technological change and skill-biased technological change both show a trend of“restraining first and then enhancing”skill premium,and the turning points were around 2008 and 2014 respectively;Fourth,due to skill mismatch,the increase in the relative supply of skilled labor did not effectively restrain the rise of skill premium,but turned from negative to significant positive after 2003.To sum up,it can be predicted that skill premium of China will still show an upward trend in the future.This study provides realistic basis and policy reference for establishing a more equal wage distribution system.