基于蒙特卡罗的故障树原油站库储罐可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of Fault Tree Crude Oil Station Storage Tank Based on Monte Carlo Method

原油站库的可靠性对于保证油气管道安全平衡运行及社会安全稳定具有重要意义。本文提出了基于故障树和蒙特卡罗的可靠性分析方法,并将此方法应用于站库中的原油储罐。研究结果表明,水相腐蚀介质、气相腐蚀介质以及储罐受力疲劳开裂是引起储罐系统故障的关键因素,对这些因素的优化可有效改善储罐可靠性。

This paper presents a reliability analysis method based on fault tree and Monte Carlo method,and applies this method to the crude oil storage tank in the station.The results show that the key factors of tank system failure are water-phase corroding media,gas-phase corroding media and tank fatigue cracking.The optimization of these factors can effectively improve tank reliability.