我国饲料粮消费测算

Re-estimate feed grain consumption in China

为准确判断我国饲料粮消费需求及其变化趋势,本研究结合饲养规模和结构变化,科学测算了主要动物性产品的饲料粮转化系数,并采用需求法对我国饲料粮消费量和消费结构进行了重新测算。结果表明:1)肉类产品单位耗粮数量明显高于鸡蛋、牛奶和水产品,其中猪肉最高。从饲料粮转化系数来看,我国耗粮型家畜比重逐步减少,节粮型产品产量迅速增长,畜禽产品供给结构逐步优化。2)养殖规模对不同畜禽品种的影响差异较大,生猪规模化养殖的单位耗粮数量高于散养户,肉牛、肉羊、蛋鸡和奶牛规模化养殖更加节约用粮,肉鸡中等规模养殖耗粮最低。3)2000—2020年我国饲料粮消费先快速增长后有所下降,2020年7种动物性产品生产预计消耗3.06亿t饲料粮。从结构来看,生猪饲料粮消费量最大,但其占比由2000年的57.54%下降至2020年的42.89%。从空间格局来看,我国饲料粮消费量大致呈“东高西低”。

In order to accurately judge China’s feed grain consumption demand and its changing trend,the feed grain conversion ratio of main animal products was calculated scientifically based on the changes of feeding scale and structure.The consumption quantity and structure of China’s feed grain were re-calculated by the demand method.The results show that:1)The grain consumption per unit of meat products was significantly higher than that of eggs,milk and aquatic products.Among which pork was the highest.From the perspective of feed grain conversion ratio,the proportion of grain-consuming livestock gradually decreased,and the output of grain-saving products increased rapidly,so the supply structure of livestock and poultry products in China was gradually optimized.2)The effects of farming scale on different livestock and poultry breeds are quite different.The grain consumption per unit in large-scale farming of live pigs is higher than that in the backyard;large-scale farming of cattle,sheep,laying hens and dairy cows saves more feed grain;and the grain consumption of medium-scale farming of broilers is the lowest.3)From 2000to 2020,China’s feed and grain consumption first increased rapidly and then decreased.In 2020,it is estimated that 306million tons of feed grain were consumed in the production of seven animal products.In terms of structure,the feed grain consumption of live pigs was the largest,which decreased from 57.54%in 2000to 42.89%in 2020.From the perspective of space,the pattern of China’s feed grain consumption was“high in the east and low in the west”.