后脱贫时代原深度贫困地区乡村人口流动的空间特征与影响因素——以凉山州同城化区域“一市三县”为例

Spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of rural population mobility in the former deep poverty-stricken areas during the post-poverty era:Taking the urban integration areas of Liangshan Prefecture as an example

探索我国当前原深度贫困地区乡村人口流动的空间特征与影响因素对揭示后脱贫时代的乡村振兴和县域城乡融合发展现状有重要的意义。本研究以国家原深度贫困地区凉山州同城化区域的“一市三县”为对象,结合2020年的统计年鉴[33-36]数据、第七次人口普查数据以及2021年区域乡村人口调查等数据,采用GIS空间分析方法、Moran’s I空间自相关等方法分析了研究区域乡村人口流动的空间特征,运用多元回归模型与GWR模型对影响因素进行剖析。结果表明:1)该区域乡村人口流动规模总体呈现围绕优势发展区域集聚的空间特征。乡村人口流动的冷热点区空间由河谷向外呈明显的“热点区-次热点区-冷点区”梯度分布格局;热点区乡村在发展水平较优河谷圈层所占比例最高,冷点区乡村在发展水平较差的“高山-二半山”圈层所占比例最高。2)乡村人口流动的活跃程度沿地理圈层呈现“净流入活跃型-平衡活跃型-非活跃型-净流出活跃型”线性梯度分布格局;按城镇体系的规模与等级结构呈现“向心集聚-距离衰减”的空间特征。3)自然地理环境因素对乡村人口净流动系数的影响均呈负相关,地形高程的负向影响最强;在社会经济发展因素中,“交通区位、距产业园区距离、距城镇距离”因素对乡村人口净流动系数的影响呈负相关,“耕地条件、城镇发育度”因素对乡村人口净流动系数的影响呈正相关。综上,凉山州同城化区域“一市三县”乡村在优势因素产生的“拉力”和劣势因素产生的“推力”共同驱动作用下形成了当前乡村人口流动非均衡性总体空间特征。本研究可为后脱贫时代凉山州等原深度贫困地区乡村振兴和县域城乡融合发展政策制订提供科学依据。

Research on the spatial characteristics and influencing factors of rural population mobility is of great significance for exploring the current status of urban and rural development in the former deeply impoverished areas in the post-poverty era.The“one city and three counties”in Liangshan Prefecture,a former deeply impoverished area in the country,is taken as the research object.The data statistical yearbook data of 2020,seventh census data,land use status survey data,and the 2021survey data for the entire rural population are used in this study.The spatial analysis method,spatial autocorrelation analysis method and hot spot analysis method are adopted to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of rural population flow.At the same time,the multiple regression model and GWR model are used to analyze the influencing factors.The research results show that:1)The scale of rural population flow presents the spatial distribution characteristics of agglomeration around advantageous development areas.The cold and hot spots of rural population flow present a gradient distribution pattern of“hot spot-sub-hot spot-cold spot”from the valley to the outside.The villages in the hot spot area have the highest proportion of the valley circle with better development level,and the villages in the cold spot area have the highest proportion of the mountain circle with poor development level.2)The activity of rural population flow presents the spatial characteristics of the gradient distribution along the geographical circle.The degree of activity of rural population mobility also presents the spatial pattern of“centripetal agglomeration-distance decay”according to the scale and hierarchical structure of the urban system.The different active types of rural population flow present a distribution pattern of“active net inflow-active balance-inactive-active net outflow”from the valley to the outside in geographical space.The spatial agglomeration scope of rural population flow decreases gradually with the decrease of urban level.3)The influence of natural and geographical environment factors on the net flow coefficient of rural population is negatively correlated.Among them,the elevation factor is the strongest.Among the socio-economic development factors,“traffic location”,“the distance from the village to the industrial park”and“the distance from the village to the city”have a negative correlation on the coefficient of the net flow of rural population.The factors of“cultivated land conditions”and“urban development degree”have a positive correlation with the net flow coefficient of rural population.Areas with a high degree of urban development have produced a huge“inward pull”on rural population mobility.In conclusion,the study can provide a scientific basis for rural revitalization and county-level urban-rural integration development policy formulation in Liangshan Prefecture and other former deeply impoverished areas in the post-poverty era.