喜新厌旧?高科技产业政策有效的边界条件与跟风行为:基于205个地级市政府工作报告的实证研究

Liking the new,loathing the old?Validity of boundary condition in high-tech industrial policies and local governments' jumping on the bandwagon

从2008—2018年205个地级市的政府工作报告中提取出产业政策信息,实证分析高科技产业政策在不同地级市的异质性效果,以及地级市政府在制定高科技产业政策时“跟风”上级政府的效果和原因。实证结果发现:高科技产业政策只在“创新禀赋”较好的城市中有效,“创新禀赋”构成了使高科技产业政策有效的边界条件;“创新禀赋”较差的城市更倾向于与上级政策保持一致,但其“跟风”上级的产业政策明显不利于当地行业的创新,这是因为“跟风”政策指向的行业在本地并不具有优势;实证结果并不支持前人“跟风”上级政策以获取更多开发区项目的结论,而发现这种跟风行为更多反映了地方政府官员之间的“政治竞争”。这个结论意味着地方政府应因地制宜制定契合本地发展基础的产业政策,不应盲目跟风。

This paper extracts the industrial policy information from the government work reports of 205 prefecture level cities from 2008 to 2018,and empirically analyzes the heterogeneous effects of high-tech industrial policies in different prefecture level cities,as well as the effects and reasons of prefecture level municipal governments' “following the trend”of superior governments when formulating high-tech industrial policies.First,high-tech industrial policy is only effective in cities with good “innovation endowment”.Further analysis shows that “innovation endowment” constitutes the boundary condition for the effectiveness of high-tech industrial policy;Second,cities with poor “innovation endowment” tend to keep consistent with the policies of their superiors,and the industrial policies of these cities “following the trend” of their superiors are significantly detrimental to the innovation of local industries,because the industries targeted by the“following the trend” policy do not have advantages locally;Third,different from the existing research,this paper does not find that the local government' s “ follow the trend” superior policy can be approved for more development zone projects.The research of this paper means that local governments should formulate industrial policies that are suitable for the development of local industries according to local conditions,and should not blindly follow the trend.