气候转型风险对企业违约率的影响

Impact of Climate Transition Risks on Corporate Default Rates

随着全球气温逐渐攀升,世界各国积极采取相关行动以应对气候变化问题。然而,政策、技术以及投资者情绪和消费者偏好的突然变化可能会对企业的生存条件和资产价值造成一定的负向影响,从而引起潜在的气候转型风险。虽有一些研究探索气候转型风险的经济后果,但是鲜有研究关注气候转型风险对企业违约率的影响,对相关传导机制和缓解方式的分析也较为匮乏。基于中国A股上市企业财务数据和搁浅资产投资组合的累积收益率数据,采用实证方法探究气候转型风险对企业违约率的影响,并根据气候转型风险与企业违约率的相关理论,从融资成本、资产减值损失和营业收入增长率3个方面解析可能的传导机制,从企业环保投资和绿色专利发明两个方面分析缓解气候转型风险影响企业违约率的方式。研究结果表明,(1)企业的气候转型风险显著提高自身的违约率,且实证结果不受样本期和变量测量方法的影响,采用工具变量进行内生性检验的结果依旧稳健。(2)传导渠道分析表明,企业融资成本和资产减值损失的提升以及营业收入增长率的下降是气候转型风险影响企业违约率的重要渠道。企业的气候转型风险越高,企业在权益市场和债券市场的融资成本就越高,且企业的资产减值损失也会进一步提升,而营业收入增长率却下降。与其他企业相比,气候转型风险对高碳排放企业违约率的影响程度更大。(3)促进企业绿色发展的环保投资和绿色专利发明可以显著缓解气候转型风险对企业违约率的影响。从企业违约率视角探索气候转型风险的影响,为理解气候转型与企业违约率的关系提供新的依据,并为企业缓解气候转型风险的影响提供有效途径。研究结果为进一步激励企业进行环保投资和绿色投资、引导企业顺应经济绿色转型发展的需要、增强经济可持续发展提供理论参考。

As global temperatures gradually rise,countries around the world are actively taking relevant actions to address the climate change issues.However,sudden changes in policies,technology,and investor sentiment and consumer preference may have some negative impacts on corporate survival conditions and asset values which may cause potential climate transition risks.Although there are some studies exploring the economic consequences of climate transition risks,there is little research focusing on the impact of climate transition risks on corporate default rates,and there is also a lack of analysis of relevant transmission channels and mitigation methods.Based on the financial data of A-share listed companies in China and the cumulative return data of “stranded assets” investment portfolios,this study uses empirical methods to explore the impact of climate transition risk on corporate default rates.Based on the relevant theories of climate transition risk and corporate default rates,the possible transmission channels are analyzed from three aspects:financing costs,asset impairment losses and operating income growth rate,and the mitigation methods for the impact of climate transition risk on corporate default rates are analyzed from two aspects:corporate environmental protection investments and green patent inventions.The research results indicate that,(1)Exposure to the climate transition risk can significantly increase corporate default rate and the empirical results are not affected by the sample period and variable measurement methods.The endogeneity test results using instrumental variables are still robust.(2)The analysis of transmission channels indicates that the increase in corporate financing costs and asset impairment losses as well as the decrease in operating income growth rate are important channels through which the climate transition risk affect corporate default rate.The higher the exposure of enterprises to climate transition risks,the higher the financing costs in the equity and bond markets,and the higher the impairment losses of assets,while the operating income growth rate has a significant decrease.Compared to other enterprises,the climate transition risk has a greater impact on the default rate of high-carbon emitting enterprises.(3)Environmental protection investment and green patent inventions that promote the green development of enterprises can significantly mitigate the negative impact of climate transition risk on corporate default rates.Exploring the impact of climate transition risks from the perspective of corporate default rates provides new evidence for understanding the relationship between climate transition and corporate default rates,and provides effective ways for companies to mitigate the impacts of climate transition risks.The research results provide some theoretical references for further incentivizing enterprises to invest in environmental protection and green investment,guiding enterprises to adapt to the needs of economic green transformation and development,and enhancing sustainable economic development.