国际资本流动“突然停止”如何影响企业全要素生产率?——基于准自然实验的考察

The Impact of Sudden Stops in International Capital Flows on Enterprise Total Factor Productivity:An Empirical Analysis Using Quasi-Natural Experiment Approach

在准自然实验的框架下,文章采用广义双重差分法考察了国际资本流动“突然停止”冲击对中国上市企业全要素生产率的影响。研究发现:“突然停止”冲击导致企业全要素生产率平均下降9%;异质性考察显示,规模小、资本密集程度高、政府补贴程度低的企业全要素生产率受“突然停止”的影响程度更强;机制分析表明,“突然停止”冲击通过降低企业技术创新进而抑制全要素生产率,融资约束在该作用机制中起到调节作用,而且随着融资约束的增加,技术创新的中介作用程度越高。进一步分析发现,“突然停止”发生之后,增加内源融资和外源股权融资有助于缓解融资约束对企业技术创新的抑制作用,进而促进全要素生产率的回升。由此,文章认为,完善财政补贴和税收优惠政策“降成本”,引导金融机构服务中小企业“稳创新”,拓展多层次资本市场“广开源”,完善自主创新长效机制“注活力”,将有助于缓解企业融资约束、对冲“突然停止”冲击进而提升全要素生产率。

This study employs a quasi-natural experiment framework to investigate the effects of sudden stops in international capital flows on the total factor productivity(TFP)of Chinese listed enterprises.Utilizing the generalized difference-in-differences(DID)method,the results indicate an average decline of 9%in TFP due to sudden stops.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that small-scale enterprises with high capital intensity and low government subsidies are more significantly impacted by sudden stops.The mechanism analysis demonstrates that sudden stops suppress TFP by impeding technological innovation within enterprises,while financing constraints play a moderating role in this process.Moreover,as financing constraints increase,technological innovation assumes a more prominent mediating role.Additional analysis reveals that after sudden stops occur,increasing internal financing and equity financing can effectively alleviate the inhibitory effect of financing constraints on technological innovation.This,in turn,mitigates the adverse impact of sudden stops on TFP.To address these challenges,several recommendations are proposed.These include improving financial subsidies and implementing preferential tax policies to reduce operational costs for enterprises,guiding financial institutions to support small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)in innovation-related activities,expanding multi-level capital markets to accommodate a broader range of enterprises,and enhancing the long-term mechanisms for independent innovation to inject vitality into enterprises.Such measures will help alleviate financing constraints,mitigate the shocks caused by sudden stops in international capital flows,and ultimately improve TFP.