风险差异、空间基础与社会反应:特大城市的风险放大路径——基于43个案例的定性比较分析

Risk Differences,Space Fundations and Social Responses:the Path of Risk Amplification in Megacities-A QCA Analysis Based on 43 Cases

特大城市不但存在各类风险隐患,还面临风险放大的挑战。既有研究从“社会主体、文化情感与媒介传播”等方面分析了风险社会放大过程,但忽略了风险的内源特征与空间基础,缺乏全链条的过程化探讨。本研究引入风险“内源性、空间性与社会性因素”的三维分析框架,采用清晰集定性比较分析方法,分析特大城市的风险放大现象。研究发现,特大城市发生风险放大的可能性排序为“社会安全>公共卫生>事故灾难>自然灾害”,存在“社会助推、响应失灵、空间脆弱与外力塑造”四种路径。风险放大以内源性和空间性因素为充分条件,以社会化过程为必要条件。初始风险越严重、社会反应越强烈、空间基础越薄弱,风险的放大概率越高。“媒体报道、公众关注和人口集聚”是风险放大的三个促进变量,“政府响应”与“物质基础”则可能发挥阻抑作用,政府响应差未必直接导致风险放大,但有效的政府响应能阻抑风险放大。建议特大城市政府重点预防社会安全和公共卫生风险的放大,关注风险严重性、媒体关注度与公众注意力等因素,提升政府响应效率与基础防御能力,实行差异化防控政策。

Megacities not only have various types of hidden risks,but also face the challenge of risk amplification.Previous studies have analysed the process of the social amplification of risk from the perspectives of"social subjects,culture and emotions,and communication media",but overlooked the characteristics of risk itself and the fundamental role of space,lacking a dynamic exploration on the entire process of risk amplification.This study introduces a three-dimensional framework of‘endogenous,spatial,and social factors"of risk,and uses a clear set qualitative comparative analysis method to analyze the risk amplification.It shows that the likelihood of risk amplification in mega cities is"social security>public health>accident disasters>natural disasters".The amplification of risk arises through four paths:the boosting of society,the failure of government response,the fragility of urban space and the shaping of external forces.For risk amplification,endogenous factors and spatial factors are sufficient conditions,and the process of social reaction is the necessary condition.The more serious the initial risk,the stronger the social responses and the weaker the spatial infrastructure,the more likely it is to trigger the amplification of risk.Media coverage,public attention and population agglomeration are three variables that promote risk amplification,while government response and physical infrastructure play a restraining role.The failure of government response will not directly lead to,but effective government responses can inhibit the evolution of risk amplification.This study suggests that governments of megacities should focus not only on the amplification of risks in the social security and public health categories,but also on factors such as the severity of the risk,media and public attention,enhancing the effectiveness of government response and the defense capabilities of urban infrastructure,and implementing differentiated policies to reduce risks.