行人与大型机动车事故严重程度影响因素分析

Factors Analysis of Influencing Injury Severities on thePedestrian and Large Motor Vehicle Crashes

行人是最易受伤的交通参与者,而大型机动车是应急灵活性差、碰撞事故冲击能量大的交通工具,因此剖析潜在因素对行人与大型机动车事故严重程度的影响非常重要。基于深圳市2015—2016年2 890条行人与大型机动车事故数据,分析其事故严重程度与时空分布特性。从人、车、路、环境、时间、空间、行为7个方面,选取22个潜在影响因素,建立偏比例优势模型得到19个显著因素,结合其边际效应量化分析各因素对该类事故严重程度的差异性影响。结果表明,8个因素不遵守平行线假设,影响最大的前5个因素为驾驶人驾龄、驾驶人年龄、违法行为、碰撞车速、天气状况,其边际效应绝对值的最大值超过14.5%,表明人、车、环境、行为等动态因素对事故的影响更明显;行人年龄、事故时间、驾驶人性别、道路类型、慢性干扰度、光线亮度的影响次之(<13%)。据此差异性影响提出一些改善建议以提升道路交通安全水平。

Pedestrians are the most vulnerable traffic participants,while the large motor vehicles are vehicles with poor emergency flexibility and high collision energy.It is very important to analyze the influence of potential factors on the injury severity of pedestrian and large motor vehicle crashes.Based on the data of 2890 pedestrian-large motor vehicle crashes in Shenzhen from 2015 to 2016,the injury severity and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics were analyzed.From the seven aspects which are pedestrian,vehicle,road,environment,time,space,and behavior,22 potential influencing factors were selected to establish a partial proportional odds model to obtain 19 significant factors.Combined with their marginal effects,the differential effects of the factors on the injury severity were quantitatively analyzed.The results showed that there are eight factors did not comply with the parallel line hypothesis.The top five factors were the driving years,driver age,violation behavior,collision speed,and weather condition.Their maximum of the absolute values of marginal effects exceeded 14.5%,indicating that the traffic dynamic factors such as pedestrian,vehicles,environment and violation behavior have more obvious impacts on the crash severities.The effects of pedestrian age,crash time,driver gender,road type,interference of non-motorized traffic,and lighting condition had the moderate influence(<13%).Based on above findings,some improvement suggestions were put forward to improve the level of road traffic safety.