1970—2019年河南省气温变化特征及其对ENSO事件的响应

Characteristics of Temperature Change and Its Response to ENSO Events in Henan Province During 1970—2019

利用河南省19个气象站点的逐日气温数据,并辅以海表温度距平指数(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)和南方涛动指数,运用多项式拟合、相关性分析等方法,分析了1970—2019年河南省气温变化特征及其与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的关系。结果表明:(1)1970—2019年河南省年、季节气温均呈明显的波动上升趋势,其中年均温以0.24℃/10a的速率递增,且春季气温增温速率最大,冬季气温增温速率最小。(2)过去50年,河南省的气温变化与ENSO事件的强度存在一定的相关关系,20世纪90年代以来,随着厄尔尼诺(El Nino)事件的增多和强度的加大,对应的河南省气温也显著增加。(3)在ENSO事件发生年份,河南省气温变化与SSTA值呈现比较明显的相关关系,且存在一定的滞后性。因此,河南省在强ENSO事件发生的当年或次年易发生极端灾害事件,需要提高警惕,加强防范。

Based on the temperature data derived from 19 meteorological stations in Henan province from 1970 to 2019,the data of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA),and the southern oscillation index(SOI),the mathematical statistics methods were used to analyze spatial-temporal characteristics of climate change of Henan province,and its correlation with El Ni o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)event.The results showed that:(1)The annual and seasonal temperature of Henan province showed the significant fluctuation and rising tendency from 1970 to 2019,and the annual temperature increased at a rate of 0.24℃/10a.Meanwhile,the spring temperature increased at the highest rate,while the winter temperature increased at the lowest rate.(2)There was a correlation relationship between the ENSO events intensity and temperature change during the past 50 years in Henan province.And since the 1990s,with the increase and intensity of El Nino events,the temperature has also increased significantly in this region.(3)In the ENSO event years,there is a significant correlation between the temperature change and SSTA values in Henan province,both with a certain lag of time.Therefore,the extreme meteorological disasters are likely to occur in strong ENSO event years or the following year in the Henan province,so the vigilant and strengthen prevention should be taken.