基于DPSR模型的中国天然气安全分析

Analysis of China's natural gas security based on DPSR model

天然气作为能源低碳转型期的重要能源,对中国顺利实施《“十四五”现代能源体系规划》具有不可替代的支撑作用。基于驱动力-压力-状态-响应(DPSR)模型构建中国天然气安全评价指标体系,对2005—2022年中国天然气安全状况进行分析,建立天然气安全障碍度诊断模型,挖掘影响中国天然气安全的关键障碍因素。(1)中国天然气安全的综合贴近度呈下降趋势,安全等级由Ⅳ级降为Ⅲ级,整体呈现“L”型发展态势。(2)中国天然气安全的驱动力贴近度呈波浪式下滑趋势,安全等级在Ⅲ级与Ⅱ级间波动;压力贴近度呈“L”型下降态势,安全等级长期处于Ⅰ级Ⅱ级之间;状态贴近度呈直线下降趋势,安全等级由Ⅴ级降至Ⅰ级;响应贴近度呈螺旋式上升趋势,安全等级由Ⅰ级稳步提高到Ⅴ级。(3)中国天然气安全的压力和响应因素障碍度呈波浪式降低,驱动力和状态因素障碍度逐年增大,关键障碍因素由压力因素与响应因素逐渐转变为驱动力因素与响应因素。(4)影响中国天然气安全水平的主要障碍要素有天然气进口、天然气价格、管网建设、国内经济高速发展、天然气战略储备、“双碳”目标的提出等。天然气进口份额、天然气自给率未来将成为影响中国天然气安全的核心障碍要素;加快清洁能源开发利用、加大突破性关键技术的科研投入,是提升中国天然气安全水平、加快构建现代能源体系的基本保障。

Natural gas,as an important energy in the low-carbon energy transition period,plays an irreplaceable part in the im-plement of the 14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy System.Based on Driving force-Pressure-State-Response(DPSR)model,this paper constructs China’s natural gas safety evaluation index system,analyzes its status from 2005 to 2022,sets up a natural gas safety obstacle degree diagnosis model,and explores the key factors affecting China’s natural gas safety.The results of study are as follows.①The comprehensive proximity of China's natural gas safety has shown a downward trend,with the safety level dropping from Level IV to Level III,and the overall development trend will show an"L"shape.②The driving force proximity showed a wave like downward trend,with safety levels fluctuating between Level III and Level II.The pressure proximity showed an"L"shaped downward trend,and the safety level remained between Level I and Level II for a long time.The state proximity showed a linear downward trend,and the safety level decreased from Level V to Level I.The response proximity showed a spiral upward trend,and the safety level steadily increased from Level I to Level V.③The obstacle degree of pressure and response factors decreased in waves while the obstacle degree of driving force and state factors increased year by year,which illustrates the gradual change of the key obstacle factors from pressure factors and response factors to driving force factors and response factors.④The main obstacles affecting the improvement of China’s natural gas safety level include natural gas import,its price,pipe network construction,strategic reserve,the proposal of“carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals”and so on.The study concludes that firstly,the natural gas import will become the core obstacle factor affecting China’s natural gas safety;sec-ondly,improving China’s natural gas safety level and accelerating the development and utilization of clean energy are the basic guarantee for speeding up the construction of a modern energy system.