玛可河林区人工增雨(雪)效果评价

EVALUATION OF ARTIFICIAL RAIN(SNOW)IN MAKEHE FOREST REGION

自2015年12月起班玛县玛可河林区开展了人工增雨(雪)作业,为验证增雨(雪)效果,提升班玛冬春季森林防火气象服务,本文采用多种统计分析方法,如区域历史回归法、序列分析法和气候统计学,对2016~2021年玛可河林区人工增雨(雪)效果进行了客观定量的评估,以确定作业点目标区与对比区雨量点差值,从而更好地评估人工增雨(雪)作业的效果。经分析得出,序列分析法显示出相对增雨率高达72.4%,效果显著;气候统计学分析显示,降水量整体比历年偏多38.5%;区域历史回归法表明,作业期间降水量增加了6.5 mm,相对增雨率为29.1%。这三种方法表明玛可河林区森林防火人工增雨(雪)作业效果显著,有助于降低森林火险等级。通过增加土壤水分,进而起到改变森林生态环境的积极作用。

Since December 2015, artificial precipitation (snow) has been carried out in Makehe forestregion of banma county. In order to verify the effect of precipitation (snow) and improve the meteorologicalservice of forest fire prevention in winter and spring in Banma, this article uses various statistical analysismethods, such as regional historical regression, sequence analysis, and climate statistics, to objectively andquantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of artificial precipitation (snow) enhancement in the Marco RiverForest Region from 2016 to 2021, in order to determine the difference in precipitation points between thetarget area and the comparison area of the operation point, and to better evaluate the effectiveness of artificialprecipitation (snow) enhancement operations. Through analysis, the series analysis shows that the relativerainfall increase is as high as 72.4%, and the effect is remarkable;Statistical analysis of climatology shows thatthe overall precipitation is 38.5% higher than that of previous years;The regional historical regression methodshows that the precipitation increased by 6.5 mm during the operation period, and the relative precipitationincrease was 29.1%. These three methods show that the effect of artificial precipitation (snow) enhancementin forest fire prevention in Makehe forest area is remarkable, which is helpful to reduce the forest fire risklevel. By increasing soil moisture, it will play a positive role in changing the forest ecological environment.