中国城市碳达峰路径及其驱动因素的结构分解

Structural decomposition of the paths to achieving the goal of peak carbon emissionsand its driving factors in China’ s prefecture‑level cities

碳达峰和碳中和是生态文明建设整体布局的重要一环,是实现中国绿色低碳高质量发展的重要举措。该研究首先基于校准的夜间灯光数据,运用从上至下估算方法对中国267个地级及以上城市的碳排放量进行反演模拟测算;然后,综合运用高斯回归、支持向量机、梯度提升等机器学习算法,科学预测各个城市的碳达峰路径;最后,运用拓展的广义迪氏指数方法对2000—2030年地级及以上城市碳排放演变的驱动因素进行分解,结果显示:①中国二氧化碳排放总量呈持续增长态势,各城市增速不同且差异较大,形成“发达城市高排量,欠发达城市低排量”的态势。②267个样本城市中,仅有苏州市、贵阳市等6个城市可以提前达峰或按期达峰,比重仅占2%;上海市、广州市、杭州市等252个城市将在2031—2034年达峰;北京市、珠海市等9个城市将长时期延期达峰。③运用拓展的广义迪氏指数进行结构分解后发现,能源消费规模、产出规模、固定资产投资规模等因素对各城市碳排放基本保持促增作用,而产出碳强度、投资碳强度等则基本保持促降作用。优化绿色低碳发展区域布局,推动低碳产业集群建设,兼顾城市“稳发展”与“促减排”是“双碳”目标有序推进的重要保障。

Achieving the goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality is crucial for the construction of China’s ecological civilization and for its achievement of green,low-carbon,and high-quality development.This study utilized calibrated night light data to simulate the carbon emissions of 267 prefecture-level cities in China through top-down estimation methods.Machine learning algorithms such as GPR,support vector machine,and gradient boosting were used to predict the paths to achieving the goal of peak carbon emissions in each city.The driving factors behind the evolution of carbon emissions in prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2030 were analyzed using the GDIM index method.The study found that:①China’s total carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow,and the growth rates of various cities differ,forming a pattern of‘high emissions in developed cities and low emissions in underdeveloped cities.’②Among the 267 sample cities,only six,such as Suzhou and Guiyang,are predicted to reach peak carbon emissions ahead of or on schedule,accounting for only 2%of the total.252 cities,including Shanghai,Guangzhou,and Hangzhou,would reach peak carbon emissions between 2031 and 2034,while nine cities,including Beijing and Zhuhai,would have a delay in reaching the peak.③Decomposing the structure by using the GDIM index method revealed that factors such as energy consumption,output scale,and fixed asset investment scale would contribute to the increase in carbon emissions in each city,while output carbon intensity and investment carbon intensity would promote the decrease.Optimizing the regional layout of green and low-carbon development,promoting the construction of low-carbon industrial clusters,and considering the promotion of stable development and emission reduction in the cities are essential to the systematic achievement of China􀆳s strategic goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality.The findings of this study have significant implications for achieving sustainable development in China.