人口老龄化下农业人力资本对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响

Impact of agricultural human capital on agricultural green total factor productivity under population aging

推动农业绿色发展不仅是乡村振兴的有效途径,而且是赋能农业现代化的内在要求,农业人力资本的提升决定了农业绿色发展的水平。该研究首先构建了2011—2021年中国30个省份的农村劳动力系数,分析了农村人力资本总体情况。其次,运用超效率SBM方法,构建GM指数测度了农业绿色全要素生产率及其分解指标,分析了中国农业绿色全要素生产率水平分布与区域差异。最后,结合农村劳动力系数与农业绿色全要素生产率指数,进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:①中国农村老龄化系数从2011年到2021年增长了0.063,农村老龄化问题正不断冲击着农业农村的可持续发展。②中国农业绿色全要素生产率从2011到2021年大多在1以上,农业绿色发展态势良好,且增长主要动力来源于农业绿色技术进步。③农村老龄化的人力资本结构显著抑制了农业绿色全要素生产率的提升,并且在经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。机制分析发现,创新水平提升在上述关系中起部分中介作用。异质性分析发现,在受教育程度低的地区以及中国西部地区,农村人口老龄化对农业绿色全要素生产率存在显著的抑制作用,而在受教育程度高的地区以及中国东中部地区,农村人口老龄化对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响不显著。相较于环境规制强度低的地区,环境规制强度高的地区农村人口老龄化对农业绿色全要素生产率抑制效应更加明显。基于上述结论,该研究从人才建设、产业融合、制度改革三个方面提出政策建议,研究结果为农村老龄化与农业绿色全要素生产率的关系提供了一定的实证依据,为农村老龄化问题的解决、乡村振兴的全面实现与农业农村绿色发展间的协调关系提供了一定政策启示。

Promoting agricultural green development is not only an effective approach to rural revitalization,but also an internal requirement for enabling agricultural modernization.The improvement of agricultural human capital determines the level of agricultural green development.This study first constructed the rural labor coefficient of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021 and analyzed the overall situation of rural human capital.Then,by using the super-efficiency SBM method,this study constructed a GM index to measure agricultural green total factor productivity and its decomposition index.The study also analyzed the level distribution and regional differences of agricultural green total factor productivity in China.Finally,the study carried out an empirical analysis combining with the rural labor coefficient and the agricultural green total factor productivity index.The results showed that:①The rural aging coefficient of China increased by 0.063 from 2011 to 2021,and the persistent issue of rural aging continuously impacted the sustainable development of agriculture and rural areas.②Agricultural green total factor productivity in China was predominantly above 1 from 2011 to 2020,indicating a good trend of agricultural green development,and the main driver of this growth was the progress of agricultural green technology.③The aging of rural human capital structure significantly inhibited the improvement of agricultural green total factor productivity,and after a series of robustness tests,this conclusion was still valid.Mechanism analysis showed that progress in innovation level played a partial mediating role in the above relationship.The heterogeneity analysis showed that in areas with low education levels and western China,rural population aging had a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural green total factor productivity.However,in areas with high education level and eastern and western China,the impact of rural population aging on agricultural green total factor productivity was not significant.Compared with areas with low environmental regulation intensity,rural population aging in areas with high environmental regulation intensity had a more obvious inhibitory effect on agricultural green total factor productivity.Based on the above conclusions,this study puts forward policy suggestions from three aspects:talent construction,industry integration,and system reform.The research results provide certain empirical foundation for understanding the relationship between rural aging and agricultural green total factor productivity and have certain policy implications for addressing the issue of rural aging,the comprehensive realization of rural revitalization,and the coordination between agricultural and rural green development.