基于复杂网络模型的广州市增城区洪涝灾害风险评估

Flood Risk Assessment for Zengcheng District of Guangzhou City Based on Complex Network Models

在气候变化和城市化发展的双重影响下,城市洪涝灾害频发,洪涝引发的链生灾害使损失进一步加剧,严重威胁民众的生命安全与城市的健康发展。以暴雨为灾害源,基于广州市增城区1980—2020年灾害数据,构建灾害演化复杂网络模型,开展灾害风险分析:通过网络平均灾害路径、边介数和连通度评估灾害网络的脆弱性;通过灾害事件共现率分析灾害事件之间的相关性。研究结果表明:高强度、短历时的暴雨是广州增城洪涝灾害的源头,水利设施损坏是影响灾害网络脆弱度的关键节点,农田受浸是引发重大经济损失的主要原因,路面积水导致房屋受浸是风险最大的灾害问题。研究成果可为广州增城洪涝灾害链风险管控与相关应急管理决策提供参考。

Under the dual influences of climate changes and urbanization,the frequent urban flood disasters exacerbate losses caused by the flood disaster chain and pose a serious threat to the public life safety and sound development of cities.Based on the disaster data from 1980 to 2020 in the Zengcheng District of Guangzhou,this paper builds a complex network model of disaster evolution by employing heavy rain as the disaster source and conducts disaster risk analysis.The vulnerability of the disaster network is evaluated by the calculation of the network average disaster path,edge betweenness,and connectivity.Meanwhile,the correlation between disaster events is analyzed by the co-occurrence rate of the events.The results show that high-intensity and short-duration heavy rain is the source of flood disasters in Zengcheng District,Guangzhou.Damage to water conservancy facilities is a key node affecting the vulnerability of the disaster network,and inundated farmland is the main cause of significant economic losses,with house flooding caused by water on the road surface being the biggest disaster risk.The results can provide references for risk control of the flood disaster chain in Zengcheng District,Guangzhou,and related emergency management decisions.