CMIP6模式对淮河中上游流域气候要素模拟效果的评估研究

Simulation Effect Evaluation of CMIP6 Models on Climatic Elements in Huai River Basin

全球气候模式(CMIP6)是大尺度模拟预测未来气候变化的主要手段,但其模式数据的模拟质量以及在不同研究区域的适用性有待评估。以1960—2014年淮河中上游流域19个气象站点实测数据为基准,利用等距离累积分布函数法、均值(mean)、离散系数(C v)、皮尔逊相关系数(PCC)、标准差(STD)以及均方根误差(RMSE)等5个精度指标对19个CMIP6全球气候模式模拟气候数据进行系统性评估,得出以下结论:①对偏差校正后的19个CMIP6模式的模拟数据初步筛选出对降水数据模拟的排名前二的气候模式有ACCESS-ESM1-5、CMCC-ESM2;对气温数据模拟排名前五的气候模式有ACCESS-ESM1-5、CMCC-ESM2;②从年内变化趋势和空间分布2个方面对优选的CMIP6模式的历史时期数据和实测历史气候数据进行评估,验证优选出适合淮河中上游流域的CMIP6模式;③从大气环流因子对气候的影响进行分析,AO与淮河中上游流域的气候数据相关性较好,模式与大气环流数据的相关性与实际情况也接近。综合评价显示最能模拟淮河中上游流域的模式是ACCESS-ESM1-5、CMCC-ESM2。对模拟淮河中上游流域的CMIP6模式数据的系统性评估,为研究合理选择和使用CMIP6数据集对流域未来情景下的气候变化要素研究提供理论和技术参考。

The general climate model(CMIP6)is the main means of large-scale simulation and prediction of future climate changes,but the simulation quality of its model data and applicability in different research regions need to be evaluated.Based on the measured data of 19 meteorological stations in the upper and middle reaches of the Huai River Basin from 1960 to 2014,this paper systematically evaluates the simulated climate data of 19 CMIP6 models using five precision indicators.The indicators include equidistant cumulative distribution function method,mean,dispersion coefficient(C v),Pearson correlation coefficient(PCC),standard deviation(STD),and root-mean-square deviation(RMSE).Finally,the following conclusions are drawn:①Based on the simulation data of 19 CMIP6 models corrected for bias,the top two climate models for precipitation data simulation are preliminarily selected,including ACCESS-ESM1-5 and CMCC-ESM2.The top five climate models for simulating temperature data contain ACCESS-ESM1-5 and CMCC-ESM2;②The historical period data and measured historical climate data of the selected CMIP6 models are evaluated from two aspects of annual change trend and spatial distribution.Then,the CMIP6 model suitable for the upper and middle reaches of the Huai River Basin is verified and selected;③Based on analyzing the influence of atmospheric circulation factors on climate,AO has a good correlation with the climate data of the upper and middle reaches of the studied basin,and the correlation between the model and atmospheric circulation data is close to the actual situation.The comprehensive evaluation shows that the most suitable models for simulating the upper and middle reaches of the Huai River Basin are ACCESS-ESM1-5 and CMCC-ESM2.The systematic evaluation of CMIP6 model data simulating the upper and middle reaches of the Huai River Basin provides theoretical and technical references for the rational selection and utilization of CMIP6 datasets for the research on climate change factors in future scenarios of the basin.