基于层次分析-信息量耦合模型的地质灾害风险评价——以河北省武安市为例

Geological hazard risk assessment based on AHP-information coupling model:A case study of Wu'an City in Hebei Province

武安市地质构造复杂,人类工程活动强烈,地质灾害较发育,严重威胁着当地居民的生命财产安全。以武安市为研究区,以1∶5万地质灾害风险调查数据为基础,基于ArcGIS平台,采用层次分析(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)法与信息量相耦合的加权信息量模型,构建了以栅格为单元的风险评价体系。针对不同灾害类型分别选取不同的评价因子进行易发性评价,在易发性评价的基础上,叠加降雨因子,进行危险性评价;选取人口、建筑物、交通设施等因子构建了承灾体易损性模型;综合危险性和易损性评价结果,采用矩阵分析法完成了风险评价。同时,结合地灾隐患特征及风险管理实际,利用栅格综合概化功能将风险分区进行了优化。结果表明:高风险区主要分布于活水乡和管陶乡北部,面积为101.25 km^(2),占比5.61%;中风险区主要分布于管陶乡、马家庄乡和矿山镇,面积为796.48 km^(2),占比44.10%;低风险区主要分布于邑城镇、大同镇等地势平缓地带,面积为908.27 km^(2),占比50.29%。评价结果可为武安市防灾减灾管理、国土空间规划和用途管制等提供基础依据,对其他地区结合自身实际选用合理的评价方法具有一定的借鉴意义。

The geological structure of Wu'an city is complicated,with intense human engineering activities and developed geological disasters,which seriously threatens the life and property safety of local residents.On the basis of 1∶50000 geological disaster risk survey data and ArcGIS platform,the authors chose Wu'an City as the study area and adopted a weighted information volume model which includes AHP and information coupling,to construct a risk assessment system based on grid unit.According to different disaster types,different evaluation factors were selected to carry out the susceptibility assessment,and danger assessment was carried out based on the superimposed rainfall factor as well as the susceptibility assessment results.Population,buildings,traffic facilities and other factors were selected to construct the vulnerability model of disaster bearing body.Based on the assessment results of danger and vulnerability,the matrix analysis method was used to complete the risk assessment.At the same time,combined with the characteristics of potential disasters and the actual risk management,the risk zoning was optimized by using the raster generalization function.The results showed that the high risk area was mainly distributed in the north of Huoshui Village and Guantao Village,covering an area of 101.25 km^(2),accounting for 5.61%.The medium risk area was mainly distributed in Guantao Village,Majiazhuang Village and Mine Town,with an area of 796.48 km^(2),accounting for 44.10%.The low risk area was mainly distributed in the gentle terrain such as Yicheng Town and Datong Town,covering an area of 908.27 km^(2),accounting for 50.29%.The evaluation results could provide a basis for disaster prevention and reduction management,territorial space planning and utilization control in Wu'an City,and have certain reference significance for other regions to choose reasonable evaluation methods based on their own actual conditions.