“体系—单元”双层结构驱动印度太空战略的军事化转向

The Militarization of India􀆳s Space Strategy Driven by“System-Unit”Double-Layer Structure

印度的太空事业起步较早,可以说是太空技术的“先行者”之一,但其主要围绕改善民生与经济发展等民用领域展开,通过独立研发与技术飞跃摆脱对发达国家的依赖。直至21世纪初,印度才逐渐考虑太空的军事用途,这与早期进行太空探索的国家形成了鲜明对比。印度太空战略的军事化转向主要受到体系与单元双层次因素的影响。一方面,体系层次压力下,为维护国家安全,印度亟须发展太空军事力量参与权力竞争。另一方面,单元层次的威胁感知、国家意图与太空硬实力基础为印度研发军事专用天基资产提供了内生动力。莫迪政府上台后,印度加快了太空战略军事化转型的进程,并将持续下去,此举将引发区域甚至是全球性太空军备竞赛,加剧太空治理困境,同时对南亚地区安全带来新的挑战。

India’s space endeavor started early and can be considered as an“early adopter”of space technology,but it mainly focused on civilian areas such as improving people’s livelihood and economic development,so as to get rid of the dependence on developed countries through independent research and development and technological leapfrogging.It was not until the turn of the century that India gradually considered the military applications of space,in stark contrast to the countries that conducted early space exploration.This paper argues that the militarization of India’s space strategy is primarily influenced by double-layer factors of system and unit.On the one hand,under the pressure of the system level,India needs to strengthen military power in space so that to maintain national security:on the other hand,threat perception,national intention and space hard power at unit level provide an endogenous impetus for India to develop space-based assets dedicated to military use.After the Modi government came to power,India has accelerated the process of militarization of space strategy and will continue to do so.This move will trigger a regional or even a global arms race in space,exacerbate the dilemma of space governance,and pose new challenges to regional security in South Asia.