基于水循环模拟的水生态产品价值量核算——以黄河上游湟水河流域为例

Valuation of aquatic ecological products based on water cycle simulation:Taking the Huangshui River Basin as an example

水生态产品实物量计算是水生态产品价值量核算及价值实现的基础。为客观反映水生态产品价值量与水循环过程的联系,论文以黄河上游湟水河流域为例,采用流域水循环多过程模拟、情景分析和社会经济调查等手段,核算了1986—2015年水生态产品(水资源供给、水资源存量、土壤保持、洪水调蓄、水质净化)实物量及其价值,系统分析了水生态产品价值量组成及时空分布规律。结果表明:湟水河流域1986—1995年水生态产品总价值量为604.81亿元/a,1996—2005、2006—2015年分别增加了10.87%、24.49%。水生态产品价值主要由水资源存储贡献(占比66.59%~69.53%),水库防洪价值、水资源供给、水质净化价值次之(分别占比18.91%~23.54%、5.08%~5.53%、4.77%~6.12%),土壤保持贡献最小(占比约0.02%)。从上游到下游子流域水生态产品价值量通常呈减小趋势,个别子流域由于有水利工程,水生态产品价值量明显增加。研究可为黄河上游流域水生态系统管理提供可靠的理论和技术支撑。

The calculation of the physical quantity of aquatic ecological products is the basis for the accounting and realization of the value of aquatic ecological products.In order to objectively reflect the relationship between the value of aquatic ecological products and water cycle processes,this study took the Huangshui River Basin in the upper reaches of the Yellow River as an example,and calculated the physical quantity and value of aquatic ecological products(water resources supply,water resources stock,soil conservation,flood regulation and storage,and water quality purification)in the basin from 1986 to 2015 by means of multi-process simulation of the water cycle in the basin,scenario analysis,and socio-economic condition investigation.The value composition and spatiotemporal distribution pattern of aquatic ecological products were systematically analyzed.The results show that the total value of aquatic ecological products in the Huangshui River Basin from 1986 to 1995 was 60.481 billion yuan/a,which increased by 10.87%and 24.49%in 1996-2005 and 2005-2015,respectively.The contribution of water resources storage was the highest(66.59%-69.53%),followed by reservoir flood control,water supply,and water purification(accounting for 18.91%-23.54%,5.08%-5.53%,and 4.77%-6.12%,respectively),and the contribution of soil conservation was negligible(0.02%).The value of aquatic ecological products in sub-basins usually decreased from the upstream to the downstream,but the values of aquatic ecological products have increased significantly in sub-basins with water conservancy projects.This study provides a theoretical and technical support for the management of water ecosystems in the upper reaches of the Yellow River.