过犹不及:发展中国家的经济结构转型与经济追赶

More is Less:Economic Structural Transformation and Economic Catch-up in Developing Countries

持续的工业化是发展中国家经济增长的重要推动力。然而,现阶段发展中国家却在普遍经历制造业向服务业的结构转型。文章基于1979-2018年的跨国面板数据系统分析了发展中国家制造业向服务业结构转型对其经济追赶的影响。研究表明:(1)发展中国家制造业向服务业的结构转型会抑制其经济追赶,且“过早去工业化”的负面作用更显著,其作用通过劳动生产率和资本积累渠道实现。(2)发展中国家较高的人力资本、经济发展水平和制度质量可以削弱结构转型的负面影响。(3)较低的农业生产率、发达国家的人工智能应用和劳动力跨梯度转移是造成发展中国家“过早去工业化”的重要原因。(4)现阶段我国的制造业比重下降也不利于经济追赶,尤其是会阻碍中西部地区的经济追赶。因此,发展中国家应采取合理的产业政策防止“过早去工业化”,并通过提升农业生产率、吸引外资、合理引导劳动力流动等助推制造业转型升级。

The huge income gap between north and south countries in the world is one of the most remarkable features of the international community,and narrowing the gap is an important manifestation of practicing the concept of“a community with a shared future for mankind”.Although inequality between north and south countries has improved in recent years,the absolute gap remains large.At the same time,after the 1990s,more and more developing countries began to“de-industrialize”with a declining share of manufacturing.For developing countries that are not yet mature in industrialization,the impact of structural transformation on their economic catch-up is of particular concern.However,existing studies are less concerned with the impact of the transition process from manufacturing to services on economic catch-up,and their impact mechanisms need further research.To this end,this paper focuses on the impact and mechanism of structural transformation from manufacturing to services and“premature de-industrialization”on economic catch-up based on the panel data of developing countries,and analyzes the impact in the Chinese context.It finds that the structural transformation of manufacturing to services in developing countries hinders their economic catch-up by depressing labor productivity and capital accumulation,and“premature de-industrialization”is more inhibitory.In addition,low agricultural productivity,labor migration across gradients,and artificial intelligence application in developed countries are important factors contributing to the“premature de-industrialization”of developing countries,while higher institutional quality,human capital,and economic development level can mitigate the negative impact of structural transformation.Further research finds that the declining share of manufacturing in China also has a significant dampening effect on economic catch-up,with particular attention to the impact of regional“premature de-industrialization”.The marginal contributions of this paper are that:First,it introduces a specific process of structural transformation from manufacturing to services to analyze the economic catch-up of developing countries,and extends the analysis with data from China.Second,it precisely identifies the mechanism of action and heterogeneity of action of the structural transformation of manufacturing to services affecting the economic catch-up of developing countries,which enriches the mechanisms of policy intervention.Third,it refines the research perspective to“premature de-industrialization”,which deepens the understanding of the reality in the process of structural transformation in developing countries.Fourth,it explains the underlying reasons for“premature deindustrialization”in terms of agricultural productivity,artificial intelligence application,and labor migration across gradients.