江苏省海洋经济系统脆弱性动态演化及驱动因素分析

Analysis on Dynamic Evolution and Driving Factors of Vulnerability of Marine Economic System in Jiangsu Province

揭示海洋经济系统脆弱性的动态演化特征与主要驱动因素,可以及时识别海洋经济运行状况并准确采取针对性措施,对促进海洋经济高质量发展具有重要意义。从敏感性、应对能力两个方面构建海洋经济脆弱性评价指标体系,运用优劣解距离法(TOPSIS)评估了江苏省2008-2016年海洋经济系统脆弱性的动态演化趋势,运用综合指数模型对比验证量化结果,运用主成分分析法揭示海洋经济系统脆弱性驱动因素并计算海洋经济系统脆弱性综合得分。研究发现江苏省2008年与2015年的海洋经济系统脆弱性状态较好,其他各年份的脆弱性动态变化趋势较平稳,其中2016年相对较差。主要驱动因素包括涉海就业人员数、沿海地区海洋及相关产业增加值、沿海港口货物吞吐量、浮游植物多样性指数、海洋自然保护区面积、沿海地区海洋第三产业产值占比等。最后提出了降低江苏省海洋经济脆弱性相关对策建议,为促进海洋强省建设提供科学依据。

Revealing the dynamic evolution characteristics and main driving factors of the vulnerability of marine economic system can timely identify the operation status of marine economy and accurately take targeted measures,which is of great significance to promote the high-quality development of marine economy.This paper constructs the marine economic vulnerability evaluation index system from two aspects:sensitivity and response ability.Technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)model is used to evaluate the dynamic evolution trend of vulnerability of marine economic system in Jiangsu province from 2008 to 2016.The quantitative results are compared and verified by using the comprehensive index model.The principal component analysis method is used to reveal the driving factors of marine economic system vulnerability and calculate the comprehensive score of marine economic system vulnerability.It is found that the state of marine economic system vulnerability in Jiangsu Province is better in 2008 and 2015.The dynamic change trend of vulnerability in other years is relatively stable,among which 2016 is relatively poor.The main driving factors include the number of marine related employees,the added value of marine and related industries in coastal areas,the cargo throughput of coastal ports,the phytoplankton diversity index,the area of marine nature reserve,the proportion of output value of marine tertiary industry in coastal areas,etc.Finally,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to provide a scientific basis for promoting the construction of a strong marine province.