基于复杂网络的长三角和粤港澳航运网络韧性评估

Resilience Assessment of Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Shipping Networks Based on Complex Network

新冠疫情等全球重大突发事件凸显了航运网络韧性的重要性。本文基于复杂网络和韧性三角理论构建一种定量评估港口群航运网络韧性的方法。该方法将航运网络韧性评估过程分为初始、破坏、恢复和稳定这4个阶段,采用节点度值、中间性、强度和随机排序这4种不同的攻击和恢复模式,并以网络独立路径数、网络效率和网络连通度这3个特征作为衡量港口群航运网络韧性的关键指标。本文以长三角和粤港澳港口群为例,利用2023年上半年的船舶靠港数据构建两个港口群内部航运网络,并对比分析两个航运网络在4种不同攻击和恢复模式下韧性指标的变化情况。结果显示,长三角航运网络规模远高于粤港澳航运网络但较均衡,而粤港澳航运网络枢纽作用更加明显。长三角航运网络的网络独立路径韧性和网络效率韧性优于粤港澳内部航运网络,前者为8.4和11.8,后者为7.9和10.2,而长三角航运网络的连通度韧性为8.3劣于粤港澳航运网络的9.5,并且两个网络在度攻击模式下韧性最差。长三角航运网络应重点加强港口之间的连通性,以及如皋港等中间性较高港口的中转能力,粤港澳港口群需强化维多利亚港等强度较大港口的枢纽能力和通道冗余性,以提升港口群航运网络韧性水平。

Major global emergencies such as the pandemic have highlighted the importance of the resilience of shipping networks.This paper constructs a quantitative method to evaluate the resilience of port group shipping networks based on complex network and resilience triangle theory.In this method,the shipping network resilience assessment process is divided into four stages:initial,destruction,recovery,and stability,and four different attack and recovery modes are adopted in order of degree,betweenness,strength,and random,and the three characteristics of network independent paths,network efficiency,and network connectivity are used as the key indicators to measure the resilience of the shipping network of port groups.In this paper,the port groups of the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong-Hong KongMacao port group are set as examples,and the shipping networks of the two port groups are constructed by ship port call data from January to June 2023 and then compares and analyzes the dynamic of resilience indicators of the two internal shipping network of two port groups under four different attack modes and recovery modes respectively.The results show that the scale of the Yangtze River Delta internal shipping network is much higher than that of GuangdongHong Kong-Macao,but it is more balanced,while it is more obvious that the role of some ports in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao internal shipping network as hub ports.The network independent path resilience and network efficiency resilience of the Yangtze River Delta shipping network are better than those of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao shipping network,the former is 8.4 and 11.8 and the latter is 7.9 and 10.2 respectively.While the network connectivity resilience is 8.3 which is inferior to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao shipping network with 9.5,and the resilience of the two was the worst in the degree attack mode.The shipping network in the Yangtze River Delta should focus on strengthening the connectivity between ports and the transit capacity of high betweenness ports such as Rugao Port,and the port group of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao should strengthen the hub capacity and channel redundancy of high strength ports such as Victoria Port to improve the resilience of the shipping network of the port group.